After Bitcoin's Collapse, The Average IBIT Investor Has Swung From A 30% Gain To A 40% Loss, Analyst Says

Murphy described the decline as an emotional change, not a fundamental one, noting inflation, dollar strength, and a move into AI equities.

• After Bitcoin’s latest drop, the typical investor in BlackRock’s (BLK) spot Bitcoin ETF is down about 40%, ETF Store President Nate Geraci said.
• The same investor was down approximately 30% in mid-2025, Geraci said, calling it “a brutal intro to btc for mainstream investors.”
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost about $5 billion this year, and IBIT’s assets are down by almost half from a late-2025 peak, said VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy.

The average investor in BlackRock’s (BLK) spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund is down roughly 40% after Bitcoin’s recent collapse, ETF Store President Nate Geraci said on Friday.

Geraci cited Bloomberg data on X noting that even in mid-2025, the typical investor in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was still up around 30% before those gains were wiped off by the drop in Bitcoin. “Been a brutal intro to btc for mainstream investors,” he said.

Source: @NateGeraci/x

That statistic is a dollar-weighted return, which factors in the magnitude and timing of investor inflows rather than the change in price of Bitcoin itself. IBIT’s fund has a far higher cost basis than the current price, because most of its money went into the fund near the top of Bitcoin’s high. 

At the time of the fund’s start in January 2024, when Bitcoin was cheaper, those who bought then are likely still sitting on gains, but they make up a small slice of the total cash invested.

Bitcoin’s price was trading at about $60,515, considerably down from the levels near six figures when much of IBIT’s capital poured in. At that price, some 40% of the fund's average shareholder would be underwater.

IBIT continues to be one of the most successful ETF launches ever. BlackRock’s filings show the fund held around 750,302 Bitcoin, with a value of nearly $44.6 billion, as of June 25. 

IBIT’s price closed at $33, up in the green on Friday. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around IBIT improved to the ‘bullish’ zone from the ‘neutral’ zone, while chatter stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.

Outflows Deepen As Assets Halve

The declines came as outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued. The biggest funds in the group have shed around $5 billion in total so far this year, Cinthia Murphy of VettaFi said, with IBIT alone suffering about $1.7 billion in net withdrawals this month. The fund’s total assets have been nearly halved from a late-2025 high of around $100 billion, Murphy added.

The decline was a change in emotion, not fundamentals, Murphy said. She pointed out that CoinShares highlighted inflation worries that have ramped up hopes of more interest rate rises and a stronger dollar, geopolitical uncertainty, and a shift of speculative capital into AI and semiconductor sectors. 

“When we look at ETF asset flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs have largely felt the weight of investor jitters,” said Cinthia Murphy. 

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