PM Modi's popularity led BJP's win in Maharashtra, Haryana; Rahul's Constitutional narrative faltered: Survey
The BJP's resounding victory in the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections was driven by Prime Minister Modi's enduring popularity, a failed opposition narrative, strategic messaging, leadership changes, and effective government schemes.
FollowIn a decisive victory, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) recently triumphed in both Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections, overwhelming the Congress and other opposition parties. This significant political achievement, which comes shortly after the BJP’s relatively lower performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, has been attributed to a number of key factors, according to the Matrize Survey.
The survey, which was conducted between November 25 and December 14, 2024, with a sample size of over 130,000 voters across Maharashtra and Haryana, sheds light on why BJP managed to secure such a commanding win in the state elections despite the national setback earlier this year.
1. Enduring Popularity of Prime Minister Modi
One of the most striking findings of the Matrize Survey was the continued popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who remains a central figure in the BJP’s success. Despite the party’s loss of significant ground in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, PM Modi's leadership remains highly trusted among voters in both states. In Maharashtra, 55% of surveyed voters reported a rise in PM Modi's popularity, while 53% of voters in Haryana echoed similar sentiments. This strong trust in Modi’s leadership played a pivotal role in the BJP's victory, signaling that the party’s success was largely tied to the Prime Minister's enduring appeal.
2. Congress' Narrative on Constitutional Changes Falters
The Congress party’s attempts to capitalize on the narrative of “constitutional changes,” which gained some traction during the Lok Sabha elections, failed to resonate with voters in the Assembly elections. The Matrize Survey found that Congress’ focus on issues such as farm laws and wrestlers' protests had little impact, with voters in Maharashtra and Haryana not perceiving these as urgent or relevant in the context of the state elections. This setback severely undermined Congress' efforts to challenge the BJP, which went unopposed in its messaging.
3. Lack of Trust in Congress Leadership
Rahul Gandhi's leadership, seen as a major pillar of the Congress-led opposition, was also a significant factor contributing to the BJP’s success. The survey revealed that voters in both Maharashtra and Haryana expressed doubts about Gandhi's ability to lead, especially when compared to the decisive leadership of PM Modi. Many felt that Gandhi’s approach was disconnected from ground realities, a perception that worked in BJP’s favor, as Modi’s image as a strong and capable leader stood in stark contrast.
4. Shift in Voter Sentiment Between Lok Sabha and Assembly Elections
The Matrize Survey also noted a shift in voter sentiment between the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Many voters in both states, who had voted against the BJP in the national elections, corrected their decisions in the state polls. This change was driven by increased confidence in PM Modi’s governance and the positive impact of central government policies on their lives. The Opposition's inability to present a coherent alternative was a key factor in the shift of voter support towards the BJP.
5. BJP’s Strategic Messaging and Leadership
The BJP’s successful messaging strategy also played a crucial role in its win. The slogan “Ek Hain to Safe Hain” (When united, we are safe) resonated with voters, particularly in Maharashtra and Haryana, where concerns around stability, national security, and economic growth under Modi’s leadership were high. On the other hand, Congress’ internal divisions and divisive rhetoric only alienated voters, failing to offer a credible alternative to BJP’s message of unity and progress.
6. Local Leadership and Organizational Factors
The leadership change in Haryana, where Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar was replaced by a new set of leaders, also contributed to the BJP’s success. The survey found that 44% of respondents in Haryana felt that the leadership change had a positive impact on the party’s performance. Moreover, BJP’s strong local leadership and well-organized campaign efforts played a significant role in securing widespread support.
7. The Role of Government Schemes and Welfare Initiatives
The BJP’s focus on local issues and welfare schemes also garnered voter support. In both Maharashtra and Haryana, the BJP’s initiatives in agriculture, infrastructure, and rural development were well-received by voters, who felt they had benefited from government policies. The party’s emphasis on addressing local needs and its successful implementation of welfare programs further solidified its appeal.
The Matrize Survey paints a clear picture of the factors that led to BJP's overwhelming success in the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections. From the enduring popularity of PM Modi to the failure of Congress’ constitutional narrative, and the strategic use of messaging, leadership changes, and government welfare schemes, several interconnected factors contributed to the BJP’s triumph. As the BJP consolidates its position in both states, the survey underscores the central role of Modi’s leadership and the party’s ability to connect with voters at the local level.
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