Stage set for NDA 3.0, PM Modi's 3rd term despite INDIA Bloc's big gains; state-wise results, voter share here

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Tuesday suffered stunning losses in three Hindi heartland states, partial poll results revealed, forcing the saffron party to rely on allies to form the government after a bitter and divisive Lok Sabha Elections 2024.

Team Asianet Newsable

First Published Jun 4, 2024, 9:49 PM IST | Last Updated Jun 4, 2024, 11:57 PM IST

The BJP led or had secured victory in 240 seats, notably below the critical threshold of 272 in the 543-seat house. The NDA's tally stood was hovering around the 300 mark at 9 pm. In contrast, the INDIA bloc showed strength by leading in 232 seats, while the Congress gained ground with leads or victories in 99 seats, nearly doubling its 2019 performance.

Comparatively, in the previous elections, the BJP had secured 303 seats independently, while the NDA collectively held over 350 seats.

Narendra Modi seemed poised to match Jawaharlal Nehru's historic feat of serving as prime minister for a third consecutive term. However, this time around, the path was marked by significantly diminished numbers for his BJP.

The saffron party faced setbacks in key regions like Uttar Pradesh, where the Samajwadi Party posed a serious challenge, as well as in Rajasthan and Haryana. Moreover, the anticipated gains in the southern states failed to materialize as expected.

In Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, respectively, BJP's principal partners N Chandrababu Naidu's TDP and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) were leading or winning 16 and 12 seats. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was expected to secure a 272 majority with the backing of its other allies. The YSRCP of Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy was defeated by the TDP in the Andhra Pradesh assembly elections as well.

"People have placed their faith in NDA, for a third consecutive time! This is a historical feat in India’s history. I bow to the Janata Janardan for this affection and assure them that we will continue the good work done in the last decade to keep fulfilling the aspirations of people. I also salute all our Karyakartas for their hard work. Words will never do justice to their exceptional efforts," said PM Modi in a post on X following Tuesday's mandate.

Home Minister Amit Shah too attributed the BJP's win for the third time to the tireless hard work of the saffron party's workers. "I bow to the people of the nation for giving the NDA, under the leadership of Prime Minister Shri @narendramodi Ji, the opportunity to serve the country for the third consecutive time. The third consecutive victory has clearly demonstrated that the people's trust lies solely with Modi Ji," wrote Shah, who clinched the Gandhinagar LS seat by a staggering margin of more than 7.44 lakh votes.

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge termed the poll outcome as the "victory of the people and that of democracy."

“We had been saying that this battle is between public and Modi...This mandate is against Modi. This is his political and moral defeat. It is a big defeat for a person who sought votes in his own name. He has suffered a moral setback," Kharge told reporters at the AICC headquarters flanked by Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi after the good showing by the Congress.

The elections also brought to light the surprising comeback of the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, led by Akhilesh Yadav, as a giant killer, and the resurgence of the main opposition Congress party under Rahul Gandhi.

Exit polls forecast a landslide victory for the BJP-led NDA, however the trends and results did not support that view. The largest democratic exercise in history will see the counting of more than 640 million votes.

In Rajasthan and Haryana, the Congress—part of the opposition INDIA Bloc—was leading or winning 99 seats, up from 52 in 2019. This was eating into the BJP's share. Over 200 seats were won or held by the INDIA Bloc.

In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress, another important supporter of the opposition coalition, was leading or winning in 29 seats, up from its 22 in 2019. This was as SP head Akhilesh Yadav kept the INDIA Bloc morale high in Uttar Pradesh. With 12 seats, the BJP led the field, up from its 18 seats in the previous Lok Sabha election.

In UP, the BJP won or was ahead in 33 seats as against its tally of 62 in 2019 and the SP’s numbers went up, largely attributed to three factors - consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of SP, smart seat sharing agreements with Congress to avoid splitting of non-BJP votes and widespread discontent with the BJP government over jobs and price rise. The SP was winning or leading in 37 of the 80 seats at stake.

PM Modi retained the Varanasi seat for the third time in a row, but with a reduced victory margin of nearly 1.53 lakh votes. In 2019, the margin was 4,79,505.

Rahul Gandhi, often lampooned by the BJP as ‘Shehzada’, won Wayanad (Kerala) and Rae Bareli (UP) seats by a huge margin of 3,64,422 votes and 3,90,030 votes respectively.

Election campaigning, which took place in seven phases between April 19 and June 1, was characterised by divisive sectarian issues and an over-reliance on Modi to win over voters. The prime minister travelled nonstop, nearly every day, to several venues for more than 300 rallies.

The BJP's claim that it will win heavily in the southern states this time was also completely debunked by the results. But in Tamil Nadu, it yielded a zero, and in Karnataka, it lost seats.

The BJP did make gains in Telangana, where it was leading in eight seats, and Kerala, where it won a seat for the first time in a state where the Congress and the Left are the main political forces. The lotus blossom helped popular Malayalam actor Suresh Gopi win the Kerala seat of Thrissur.

Telugu Desam Party, a BJP ally in Andhra Pradesh, was ahead or winning in 16 seats while the BJP was ahead or winning in three.

The BJP, which was up against a more formidable opposition, suffered its greatest blow in the north, where it lost in Rajasthan and Haryana in addition to Uttar Pradesh.

The party was also given a harsh deal by West Bengal, which more than made up for its defeats in Odisha.

The BJP won or took the lead in all 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, turning the state completely saffron. The BJP was leading or winning 25 out of 26 seats in Gujarat as well. In other states, the circumstances were not as clear-cut.

In Bihar, the BJP led by 12 and its ally JD-U by 13, showing support for its leader Nitish Kumar, who had defected from INDIA to the NDA before the polls. It looked like the RJD would take four seats. Only 14 of the 25 seats that the BJP had previously won with its alliance were in Rajasthan. In eight, the Congress was in the lead.

The results from Haryana also came as a shock to the BJP, as the party led in just five states while the Congress led in five. The saffron party had won all ten in 2019.

The election seemed to signal a return to traditional politics, with voters focused more on problems of bread and butter, particularly in key regions in the Hindi heartland where the opposition INDIA coalition successfully mobilised support around rising prices and unemployment.

With 48 Lok Sabha seats, Maharashtra has seen the Shiv Sena divided evenly ever since the previous election. Five years ago, the BJP had won 23 seats. Now, it leads in 11 seats, while its ally Shiv Sena may win seven.

Conversely, the Congress had gained 12 seats, up from 1, and the Shiv Sena (UBT) had gained 19. The INDIA alliance, which was united by a shared distaste for the BJP, might win 38 seats if the NCP Sharad Pawar faction wins seven seats.

The union ministers Nitin Gadkari and Piyush Goyal, who seemed headed for straightforward wins in Nagpur and Mumbai North, respectively, offered a bright spot, though.

The ruling Biju Janata Dal had just one seat in Odisha, while the BJP was dominating 19 of the state's 21 seats. Additionally, it was leading in 76 of the 146 seats in the Odisha assembly elections, a success in a state it had never been able to win.

The BJP had three seats, the YSRCP four, and the Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP led sixteen of the twenty-five seats in Andhra Pradesh.

Karnataka trends indicated that the Congress could make gains, as they now lead nine seats, up from one the previous time. In 2019, the BJP secured 25 seats, and it led in 17.

Rather than giving the saffron party any room, Tamil Nadu appeared to be writing a different narrative. Compared to their 2019 standings, the ruling DMK led Congress in nine and its ally in 22.

Here's a look at states and UTs Lok Sabha Election 2024 results as on 9:00 pm as per ECI official website:

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BJP - 1 seat