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Karnataka: Will CM Bommai be replaced, this is what political analysts say?

After Karnataka minister KS Eshwarappa made a big comment about Murugesh Nirai becoming the 'next CM', it has provided an opportunity for opposition to launch a scathing attack. Political analysts give mixed reactions to the development of the issue. While Professor Muzzafar Assadi from the University of Mysuru said Eshwarappa's statement reflects the mood in the party, independent analyst S Rajashekara opines otherwise.

Karnataka Will CM Bommai be replaced, this is what political analysts say?-ycb
Bengaluru, First Published Dec 1, 2021, 5:27 PM IST
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If one seriously goes by BJP minister KS Eshwarappa statements then there could be a change of guard in Karnataka as CM Bommai may be replaced. Eshwarappa recently attended a public function at Bilgi, the Assembly segment of fellow minister Murugesh Nirani and told that he will be 'next CM'.

Examining the statement, leading political analyst Professor Muzzafar Assadi, from University of Mysuru said the statement made by Eshwarappa reflects the mood in the party. He reminded that earlier when BS Yediyurappa was about to be replaced, the same rumors were floating and Eshwarappa suddenly has told he knows who is the next CM but declined to comment further.

He said the reason for the change of guard could be due to CM's name dragging in allegations of 40 per cent commission to sanction government projects and also his and his family name cropping in the bitcoin scam case. He also warned about the cascading impact in case Bommai is replaced.

"It is political suicide in a way, in case Bommai is replaced by Nirani and others, this would result on the social realignment of the caste groups in Karnataka. The majority would feel that only one community is being pampered and given priority. This may lead to a realignment of 'Ahinda' thinking that they will not get any place in 'Libra' (combination of Lingayat and Brahmins) group," said Assadi.

To a question on who could replace CM Bommai in case the party decides to opt for a change to which Assadi opined that, the party would be looking for a clean image man, someone who could lead the party in the next elections.

"Last time they played three cast cards is two Lingayat (BS Yediyurappa and Jagadish Shetter) and one Vokkaligga (DV Sadananda Gowda). This time going with three Lingayat is suicidal so some surprising person may emerge (as CM). A dark horse may emerge, for example Ashwath Narayan may emerge. Personally, he may be different but publicly, he has no history of defection or in case if the party wants to go by BJP plus RSS background they may settle with R Ashoka. S Suresh Kumar, a brahmin is also an ideal candidate but he cannot bring votes to the party. If you make Eshwarappa, you will lose votes," he stated.

Bommai will stay as CM: Independent political analyst S Rajashekara

Independent political analyst S Rajashekara differed from Assadi's views as he see no reason for change of guard as the decision to make Bommi as CM and then decision to go to next Assembly election under his leadership has come from none other than former BJP national chief and Home Minister Amit Shah.

"He (Bommai) has been conducting himself professionally well after he was made the CM. In fact, he is getting into the mold of a right-wing BJP leader by stating that there will be a reaction for every action. This is an effort to get into RSS books. He is not from RSS originally as he comes from a Janata Dal background, now he is trying to become one," Rajashekara stated.

He also pointed out that although the name of CM appeared in a 40 percent commission case and also the bitcoin case, this will not damage his prospectus. He stressed just because CM's name is dragged into an allegation, be it BJP, Congress or JDS will not sack CM as pieces of evidence are required.

On Eshwarappa's statements, the analysts say that as far as his statements are concerned, it is quite natural for any leader to praise if he visits the assembly segment of his colleague or fellow ministers voting segment. 

Nirani's name was in the top contenders' list for CM post when Yediyurappa resigned, the statement by Eshwarappa is to please voters of Nirani and that is the only reason I see.

"Bommai is much younger compared to Yediyurappa and I don't see him being replaced. Only if any serious charges are reported against him and if he is removed, then like I said earlier, Nirani who is a top contender may again claim the top spot," stated Rajashekara.

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