The Maldives could face the same fate as Sri Lanka's, say experts
Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar's visit to the Maldives this last weekend came in the backdrop of a sustained anti-India campaign carried out by the pro-China and former Maldives President Abdulla Yameen since the last couple of months.
During the two-day tour of the island nation, Jaishankar inaugurated a number of infrastructure development projects that have been built with New Delhi's assistance.
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Experts are of the opinion that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Maldives President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih have strong personal chemistry and that would help in containing the growing anti-India sentiments being fuelled by the country's Opposition and indirectly by the Chinese. The two countries share decades of close and friendly partnership.
Anti-India campaign in the Maldives
Yameen, a known pro-Chinese politician in the island nation, has spurred anti-India protests in the country after his acquittal in the money laundering and embezzlement case. On a number of occasions, he claimed to be the brain behind such protest.
Talking to Asianet Newsable, Prof Sanjay Bhardwaj, Centre for South Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, said: "Chinese investment in the Maldives is much bigger than the size of Maldives' GDP. The island state is moving towards the debt trap."
Cautioning that the Maldivian citizens were failing to understand the Chinese design, Prof Sanjay Bharadwaj said that Male would face the same fate as Sri Lanka is now facing.
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He believed that China and Pakistan are behind the growing religious secessionist groups. The groups are highly active in the country.
China is trying to trap the country by luring them through investments that are not beneficial for the country in the long run, Prof Sanjay Bhardwaj said.
Dr Dhananjay Tripathi, Senior Assistant Professor, South Asian University said, "China is definitely behind the anti-India protest in the island nation. Maldives economy is totally a tourism-driven economy as of now and the size of China's debt on the Maldives is more than its economy. These are critical things for the Maldivian administration. So in a sense, the Maldives is also trying to diversify its foreign relations and looking at India for investments."
India-Maldives relations during Yameen's rule
It must be recalled that Yameen had come into power in 2013 on the same anti-India plank and since then China has entrenched itself in the tiny state. Male witnessed huge investment from China.
It should also be noted that it is China's policy to trap all the tiny nations under its debt. In his latest barbs against India, the former president wanted all defence pacts with New Delhi to be cancelled and it has been witnessed that his whips have gained momentum in the last few months.
He has also been alleging that India has developed a major military base in the archipelago. However, the government has rejected the claims. He also sought a referendum to seek public approval on the presence of Indian forces.
During his regime, he had returned two Dhruv ALHs to India. The choppers were given to assist the island's coast guards in reconnaissance duties. He had even thrown out an Indian company that was engaged in an airport modernisation programme. The project was later given to a Chinese firm.
India attaches great importance to the Maldives
As per Prof Sanjay Bhardwaj, Maldives is very close to India culturally and politically.
Stating that the cordial relation between two neighbouring countries is the need of the hour to keep radical elements and anti-India elements at bay, the JNU professor cautioned that the situation could lead to political instability and insecurity in the country.
"Being a regional power player, India wants a democratically-elected, liberal and progressive government in the Maldives for political stability," Prof Sanjay Bhardwaj added.
PM Modi and President Solih's personal bonhomie
According to Dr Dhananjay Tripathi, the two leaders shares strong chemistry and which can be well understood by the fact that the Indian prime minister undertook his maiden foreign visit to the Maldives when he came at the helm of power for the second term in 2019.
Since the Maldives is considered as the gateway to the Indian Ocean, Dr Dhananjay Tripathi reasoned that the island nation is pivotal for India's geostrategic interests and Mission SAGAR initiative.
Jaishankar will embark on a four-day tour day tour to Sri Lanka on March 27. Colombo is again a victim of China's debt trap.
The presidential election in the Maldives is slated to take place next year. China and India will be closely monitoring the situation evolving in the island nation.
