Opinion | Bangladesh After Hasina: A New Era for India-Bangladesh Relations?

Bangladesh and India have a unique relationship shaped by a mix of friendship and occasional disagreements. Their bond is rooted in history, but challenges often arise, making their connection both close and complicated.

The balance of cooperation and tension between Bangladesh and India has become more strained since August 5, 2024, when Sheikh Hasina stepped down from power in Bangladesh.

When Sheikh Hasina left power, an interim government led by Professor Muhammad Yunus took over. This change disrupted the close relationship between India and Bangladesh’s Awami League, raising questions about the future of the bilateral relationships 

Recent events, such as the arrest of Chinmoy Roy, a former ISKCON leader in Bangladesh, have further worsened an already tense situation.

Accusations of sedition (actions against the government) and attacks on diplomatic buildings have made the situation worse, highlighting how fragile the relationship between these two neighbors has become.

India has always shared a strong bond with Bangladesh's Awami League because of the party's key role in the 1971 Liberation War and its leadership in shaping the country afterward.

Over the years, India’s close ties with the Awami League have helped protect its strategic interests, but this has also distanced other political groups and parts of the Bangladeshi population. Sheikh Hasina’s long time in power has strengthened India’s influence, but it has also created the impression that India favors one political party over others.

If Hasina is removed from power, India risks losing a trusted ally and will need to work on rebuilding trust with an interim government that may want to show its independence.

Tensions have grown because of increasing anti-India feelings in Bangladesh. These are driven by unresolved issues between the two countries and the belief that India is interfering in Bangladesh’s internal politics.

Chinmoy Roy's arrest, along with India’s worries about the safety of minorities in Bangladesh, led to a diplomatic conflict between the two countries.

India’s Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri, visited Dhaka to address these issues, but his talks with Bangladeshi officials revealed ongoing frustrations on both sides.

Bangladesh acknowledged India’s concerns about minority rights but stressed that other countries should not comment on its internal affairs.

The interim government made it clear that Bangladesh wants mutual respect for its sovereignty and no interference in its internal matters.

This strong position shows a change in Bangladesh’s foreign policy, indicating that it wants to reshape its relationship with India and move away from the dynamics seen during Hasina’s time in power.

These ongoing diplomatic disputes stem from deep-rooted issues that have not been resolved, which continue to put pressure on the relationship between the two countries.

i) Border killings are a highly sensitive issue, with repeated incidents along the Bangladesh-India border causing frustration and anger among the people of Bangladesh.

ii) Even though promises have been made many times, there has been little progress on the Teesta water-sharing deal, which has added to the frustration of people in Bangladesh.

iii) These issues, along with trade imbalances and restrictions on imports, have made many in Bangladesh feel that India is ignoring their concerns.

This has given rise to anti-India views, especially among opposition parties and local groups. These feelings became clear during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s controversial visit to Dhaka in 2021, which led to violent protests and strained the relationship between the two countries.

The approach of the interim government also shows changes in Bangladesh’s internal politics. India’s focus on working mainly with the Awami League has left other political parties feeling ignored and upset.

The opposition’s use of anti-India messages, such as the “India Out” campaign, highlights a growing gap between how the people feel and India’s long-standing approach of supporting certain political parties in Bangladesh. This means that while India has traditionally worked closely with specific leaders or groups, many ordinary people feel their concerns are being overlooked, leading to frustration and resentment.

During the July Revolution, people chanted slogans like “Delhi or Dhaka: Dhaka, Dhaka” on the streets, showing their strong support for Bangladesh over outside influence.

Although these campaigns are mostly from smaller groups, they still connect with some people, showing growing frustration about India’s perceived control in its relationship with Bangladesh.

India’s internal policies have created perceptions that complicate the relationship. Many in Bangladesh feel concerned about the rise of ethnonationalism (promoting the dominance of a particular ethnic or cultural group) and the alleged mistreatment of Muslims in Indian politics. While these concerns may not fully reflect the reality, they have still been noticed in Bangladesh, a country where most people are Muslim and deeply value their cultural and religious identity.

Similarly, reports of communal violence and perceived unfair treatment of minorities in India have fueled anti-India sentiments among some in Bangladesh. Though these feelings might not represent the complete picture, they have still affected the goodwill that defined the early years of the relationship, leaving many in Bangladesh feeling uneasy and disappointed.

Many in Bangladesh perceive that Muslims are being marginalized in India’s political discussions, and this perception has affected the social and cultural connections between the two nations. While this view may not fully reflect the reality, it has contributed to some strain in the relationship.

The current deadlock in diplomacy shows that the relationship between India and Bangladesh needs to be adjusted. India needs to understand that its close ties with the Awami League have left many other political groups in Bangladesh feeling excluded and ignored. This has created a sense of imbalance that needs to be addressed for a better relationship.

To rebuild trust and create a stronger bond, India needs to involve not just the ruling party but also opposition parties, civil society, and local organizations. This broader approach can help make the relationship more inclusive and balanced.

Addressing serious problems like border violence and agreements on sharing water would show that India is dedicated to treating Bangladesh fairly and justly. By working to resolve these issues, India can prove its commitment to good relations and cooperation with its neighbor.

These actions would not only solve current problems but also help build a stronger and more lasting partnership for the future.

India's domestic policy is also very important. By being more inclusive and accepting of its Muslim population, India can reduce negative feelings in Bangladesh and strengthen its image as a regional leader that values peace and diversity.

This change would need more than just new policies; it would also involve changing India’s overall political approach. Often, this approach has focused on the interests of the majority, which can harm unity among different regions and communities. By making this shift, it could seem to Bangladesh that India is genuinely working towards greater harmony.

For Bangladesh, the temporary government needs to find a careful balance between showing its independence and keeping a positive relationship with India.

Tackling India’s worries about minority rights and ensuring justice for attacks on religious and cultural sites would boost its moral standing and show a commitment to mutual respect.

The temporary government should avoid saying or doing things that could make tensions worse. Instead, it should work on having open talks and finding positive solutions to problems with India.

The best way forward, as opined by The Diplomat, is to recognize the common interests and complexities in the relationship between Bangladesh and India. Their shared history, culture, and geography mean that working together is not just a good idea, but essential.

Both countries need to focus on solving their disagreements and building trust. They should pay attention to areas that benefit them both, like trade, energy cooperation, and tackling climate change.

Sheikh Hasina's fall has changed the way Bangladesh and India interact. While this change has revealed some hidden tensions, it also gives both countries a chance to reshape their relationship in a fairer and more inclusive way.

By dealing with past issues and focusing on the future, Bangladesh and India can move past their current standstill. This will help them build a future based on mutual respect, cooperation, and shared success.

According to The Diplomat , the risks are significant, but the benefits of a stable and positive partnership between these two neighboring countries are equally great.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)