In the shifting sands of Tamil Nadu politics, 40 days are a long time. That is the time TTV Dhinakaran spent inside Tihar Jail on charges of bribing an Election Commission official to secure the two leaves symbol for his faction of the AIADMK. And buoyed by the presence of 15 MLAs and three MPs who flocked to greet him on his release, Dhinakaran has decided to do a Kabali. "Naan Vanthutenu sollu. Thirumbi Vanthutenu." (Tell them I have returned)
Not that the opposite camp did not know. In fact, it took note of the return of the Mannargudi native almost immediately by convening a meeting of ministers in the Edappadi Palaniswami cabinet. After which Finance minister D Jayakumar announced that Dhinakaran continued to be persona non grata and that the ruling AIADMK has nothing to do with him or his family.
Jayakumar, in effect was reiterating the April 18 position, when Dhinakaran also had agreed to stay away from the affairs of the party. The bribery case against him had dented his position as the deputy general secretary of the AIADMK. It had also sent across a message to the rest of the party that no one is safe.
But the manner in which Delhi Police approached the case, not even able to present the name of the EC official who was allegedly sought to be bribed by Dhinakaran, seems to have boosted the politician's confidence. His demeanor clearly suggests he is in no mood to walk into the Marina sunset. At least not yet.
Rewind to a couple of months back when things were different. Dhinakaran planned to win the RK Nagar election - by making the people of RK Nagar richer, his rivals would snigger - and make his path to becoming CM smoother. That wasn't to be with the alleged plan to bribe voters exposed, resulting in the EC rescinding the bypoll.
Now Dhinakaran knows he has no chance to even daydream to occupy the top slot. But what he can do is to upset the EPS applecart. Palaniswami hangs on in power by the skin of his teeth, with a majority of just six legislators. All Dhinakaran needs to do is to get his supporters to make EPS realise that it is not great political acumen to bite the hand that made him chief minister.
Which is why on the face of it, Jayakumar's bravado does not make much political sense. Dhinakaran's hunch is that the fear factor is still at play as far as the ministers are concerned which means anyone seen to be siding with the Mannargudi family will get a knock from the enforcement agencies.
It is clear that it won't be easy for the AIADMK ruling faction to shake off the Sasikala family influence. Sasikala reportedly told Dhinakaran who met her in Bengaluru central prison to wait for two months for the merger process to take place. The talks have broken down, thanks to the rigid positions taken by both camps and any movement forward is likely only after the Presidential elections.
But what's more significant is that contrary to his earlier position, Dhinakaran is no longer talking of giving up his position. "Only if Chinnamma asks him to" is his position, which means the family is in no mood to step back. This will make the merger possibility more difficult given the ouster of Sasikala and Dhinakaran is the main condition put forth by Panneerselvam.
But in the time that Dhinakaran was cooling his heels at Tihar, EPS was building bridges with Delhi. So much so that he has not said a word about the cattle gazette notification even though Tamil Nadu along with Kerala was pretty much dominating the protest headlines. As far as Palaniswami is concerned, should Dhinakaran play truant and Panneerselvam express unwillingness to support him with his 12 MLAs, the BJP government at the Centre will step in to provide cover.
His 100 days as CM have also seen Palaniswami asserting himself. The changes in the bureaucracy are his decisions and not dictated from Bengaluru central prison as was expected when he took charge. What's more, his photograph made an appearance in the offices at the Tamil Nadu Secretariat on 6 June, soon after Dhinakaran was seen asserting himself. In any other government, this would be a routine development but Tamil Nadu is a different kettle of governance. Panneerselvam's picture was never put anywhere in the two months he was CM and he did not even occupy Jayalalithaa's chamber. Palaniswami, in contrast, has indicated that he wants to be a Test match player and not play a T20 game.
With no love lost between Dhinakaran and Palaniswami, all available indications are that the ruling AIADMK (Amma) could be heading for a split. The trigger could be Dhinakaran deciding to meet AIADMK MLAs or at least those who support him at the party headquarters in Chennai, to emphasise his position as the deputy general secretary. Clearly Tamil Nadu has not seen the last of the ugly showdowns in AIADMK politics.
