Rajinikanth in politics: Will Tamil Nadu's latest production be a blockbuster?

The script is ready, the lead actor has signed on the dotted line despite a serious case of jitters. All the latest political production in town needs to decide is the muhurat date.

"Naan 21 years late aa vandalum, latest aa varuven" (Even if I am 21 years late, I will come in the latest avatar) could well be Rajinikanth's tagline as he gets set to launch himself into politics. According to people aware of what's happening behind the scenes, the actor initially wanted to launch his party on his birthday, 12 December after doing the groundwork of setting up district units well in advance before D-day.

But with the media buzz on his political plunge gaining in decibel level, it is quite possible he may announce it in August or September. By that time, Rajinikanth will be through with his part of the shooting for `Kaala'. 40 per cent of the movie, being produced by son-in-law Dhanush is being shot in Mumbai and the remaining part will be shot at a Dharavi set that is erected in Chennai.

Union minister Nitin Gadkari has reportedly played a role in convincing Rajinikanth. Editor of Thuglak magazine S Gurumurthy has already gone on record claiming Rajini seeks his counsel. Sources indicate that at the Rajinikanth end, his wife Latha is the point person setting up the back office. 

What will be the nature of Rajinikanth's party? While a name has not yet been decided, the initial lot of members is expected come from his fan associations and individuals with a reasonably clean reputation in public life. Rajini is also likely to attract AIADMK leaders who aren't happy with the current state of flux in the ruling party as well as politicians from smaller parties like the MDMK, DMDK, PMK, TMC who may feel the grass is greener in Rajini's Poes Garden. 

The actor has been advised by top politicians, including in the BJP, that joining the saffron party will not be politically prudent. The argument is that Rajini is too tall a personality to make a lateral entry and be slotted in an established political outfit. But what is certain is that Rajini's party will have a pre-poll alliance with the BJP and thereby become a member of the NDA.

Once the party is launched, the Panneerselvam faction of the AIADMK could be part of the picture as well. Given Vijaykanth's equation with Rajini, the two actors could come together as well in the hope of producing a political blockbuster. Dr Anbumani Ramadoss of the PMK has campaigned for Tamil Nadu taking a break from the two Dravidian parties but has drawn an electoral blank. If he sees no light at the end of the tunnel by going alone, he may have political compulsions in choosing Rajini as a fellow traveller.

Not that it was easy to convince Rajini. He is conscious of his image as a demi-god now and remains wary of tasting the embarrassment of a failure at this stage of his life. He knows if he flops, it is the image of a failed politician that will stay in the public mind forever instead of his larger-than-life superstar persona. 

Rajini also has been adamant about avoiding the company of dishonest persons. He believes that an anti-corruption plank in a state where cash for votes is commonplace, leading to more corruption, would click with the honest voter. 

The actor also wanted a 100 per cent assurance of success, next to impossible in politics. But numbers were presented to him, breaking up Tamil Nadu into vote banks and the actor who has spent a lifetime, analysing the box office, was convinced if he had a good product, he had a good chance to crack the political box office as well.

The Rajini team believes that of the 40.77 per cent vote the AIADMK netted under Jayalalithaa in May 2016, at least 15 per cent of it has moved away from the party, disillusioned by the manner in which the leaders have been at each other's throat since December. Given the antipathy of the AIADMK cadre to the DMK, the vote will not go to MK Stalin. Rajini as the new kid on the block could be the beneficiary. Add to that the 5 per cent floating vote of the Rajinikanth fan that will come into his fold. 

The BJP got only 2.8 per cent vote in the assembly elections last year while the DMDK fared worse with 2.4 per cent. The PMK netted 5.32 per cent. If Rajini brings 20 per cent vote to the kitty, the alliance starts with a decent 30 per cent projected vote share. An alliance with the Panneerselvam faction of the AIADMK could help them consolidate further, enough to beat the DMK-Congress alliance that garnered 37 per cent in 2016. The calculation, however, does not factor how much of the Muslim vote will move away from this alliance because of the BJP's presence.

It is believed that Tamil Nadu then will see a two-pronged race with a direct contest between Rajinikanth and Stalin. Which will then also become a clash between inexperience and experience?.

With all three factions of the AIADMK - Panneerselvam, Palaniswami and Dinakaran - supporting the NDA presidential candidate Ramnath Kovind and indicating they want to do business with the BJP, it is not certain how long the government will last in Chennai. What is certain is that Rajinikanth would ideally want to do an Usain Bolt to Fort St George, without much of a gestation period between forming a party and the election.