Qatar crisis: Time for India to talk tough in West Asia

These are tough times for Indian diplomats in West Asia. 

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain have cut diplomatic ties with Qatar - for its perceived closeness to Iran and continued support to terrorist groups such as the Taliban, Hamas and the Islamic Brotherhood. They have also imposed a land blockade against the tiny - but rich - Kingdom.

India has high stakes in both camps. India’s energy security and the well-being of 8 million workers depend on creative diplomacy.  

From Saudi Arabia, last year India imported an estimated 55 million tons of crude oil and another 16.5 million came from the UAE. From Qatar, India imported 8.5 million tons of liquefied natural gas. 

UAE accounts for about $20 billion in annual remittances while Saudi Arabia is the source of $16 billion and Qatar a further $5 billion. This is not small beer. The crucial thing is that these remittances are widespread and proliferate to individual families across India – they are vital as they directly involve well-being of millions of Indian at home and are fundamental for many states – like Kerala and UP to stay afloat.

India needs a middle path in the West Asian Quagmire - with a polite but firm resolve of not siding with Saudi demands. While India too is hurt by Qatar’s insistence on sponsoring Taliban terror - it is equally uneasy with the Wahabi ideology that is sponsored by Saudi Arabia through the funding of hidden networks and madrasas in India.

India has little choice really as for her both sorts of encouragements to Islamic terrorism are ultimately problematic. 

Given these constrains what should India do?  

In the past, it would have little choice but to take sides and hope it ends up with the winners.  However now as a $2 trillion economy and a nuclear power, India must take a bolder stance. With power comes greater responsibility. 

India has to communicate that it believes that terror in any form is bad and to that extent it’s sympathies are with the Saudi block. However, it must also tell the Saudi-led alliance that its concerns go beyond the current impasse and that it has a stake in the stability of the Persian Gulf and cannot compromise its interests in Qatar and Iran. 

With formidable coalition including the US opposing it means that it is difficult to predict of Qatar can hold on for very long in this crisis. The Saudi goal to make Qatar rich but impotent with a plaint foreign policy may be achieved in the short run, but is unlikely to fructify for too long. This problem and Iran’s increasing role in the region is bound to grow. 

In the Qatar crisis, there is an opportunity for India to insist that its core foreign policy objective is of rooting out terror in any form without prejudice is the only way forward. A bold moral and diplomatic stand is called for - emphasising India’s traditional anti-terror credentials. 

As Saudi Arabia diversifies her economy and it’s oil giant Saudi Aramco looks for investments overseas, India with her petrochemical and refining capabilities holds the promise of a mature market. Similarly Gas as the likely dominant resource of the future - and with Oil prices not likely to climb past $55 - Qatar’s vast sovereign wealth too may look at Indian assets. India must be open for business for both sides.

The time has come for India to shed her traditional reluctance in West Asia and tell those nations that her foreign policy will not be held hostage to the objectives of other nations.
 
India must remind the Arabs that the traditional mercantile relationship is mutually beneficial and by maintaining a balance with India both sides have a lot to gain.
This will take bold diplomatic manoeuvre and a clear articulation of India’s position. PM Modi’s personal rapport with the house of Saud and the Qatari royal’s will come in Handy. 

After all, he was bestowed the highest Saudi civilian honour and also negotiated a much cheaper long term price of gas for India from Doha – both very significant recent achievements. For her geo-economic well-being, India cannot afford to rest on these laurels.