Edappadi Palaniswami has decided to kill two rivals with one decision. By announcing a judicial probe into Jayalalithaa's death and declaring that Veda Nilayam, Jayalalithaa's residence in Poes Garden, will be converted into a memorial, EPS has ticked two demands on O Panneerselvam's list. What it will also do is to point the needle of suspicion at the role played by VK Sasikala, who was the only person who had complete access to Jayalalithaa between 22 September and 5 December, when the former CM was hospitalised. 

In mathematical terms, if OPS and TTV Dhinakaran, Sasikala's nephew and the party deputy general secretary cancel each other out, it will be Advantage EPS. Clearly in this game of tennis on the Chennai court, there is no Love All. 

What EPS has also done is to push OPS into agreeing to a merger of the two factions. Panneerselvam's three demands were the probe into Jaya's death, expulsion of the entire Mannargudi family and converting Poes Garden residence into a memorial. EPS will show that he has met all three conditions as he has already declared Dhinakaran's appointment null and void. 

If OPS still does not agree to a merger, it will be seen as a manifestation of his greed for political goodies (read, the chief minister's post). The OPS camp is likely to say the Palaniswami camp has still not formally disowned Sasikala and purged the party of the entire Mannargudi clan. 

But scrape the surface and you find that the decision reeks of the worst form of political opportunism. Almost every leader in the AIADMK had been granted a political life by Jayalalithaa but now everyone wants to reap the benefits of playing politics over her death. 

The EPS regime had in fact filed an affidavit in the High court saying there is no need for a probe into Jayalalithaa's death. Now it finds it politically convenient to take a U-turn. OPS never uttered a word about any suspicion of hanky panky in his leader's death during the time he was CM between 6 December 2016 and 6 February 2017. His conscience woke up only when Sasikala decided to replace him as the leader of the AIADMK legislature party. 

Will these two decisions then take the two factions closer to a merger? It largely depends on OPS. His faction is unhappy that EPS has managed to consolidate itself in the last six months that he has been in office. And for OPS, a three-time CM to go into the cabinet as a deputy CM, will be certainly seen as a demotion. But by agreeing to these two demands, EPS has left OPS with little manoeuvring space. 

If OPS still holds out on the merger formula by insisting on expelling Sasikala, it is quite likely that his support base, already shrunk to just ten MLAs, could reduce further, making him politically irrelevant.

But the flip side is that in the last month, actor Kamal Haasan has attacked the EPS regime, calling it corrupt and asking for its resignation.

Questions will be asked if OPS who claims to fight a dharma yudham would want to join hands with a government branded as corrupt by a leading light of civil society. Then there is the Dhinakaran factor. At the Melur public meeting this week, he basked in the presence of 20 MLAs. If that number swells on 23 August when he will have his second meeting in north Chennai, the tremors will be felt in Fort St George. 

Going strictly by numbers, EPS is a minority government at the moment, should Dhinakaran's 20 legislators vote against the regime. Even if Panneerselvam were to abstain or vote for EPS, the government cannot be saved. The only way Palaniswami can avoid getting the pink slip is to patch up with Dhinakaran but that will put him in the line of fire of both OPS and the ruling party in Delhi.  

What kind of an effect is Palaniswami's decision likely to have on Dhinakaran's support base?

The Dhinakaran camp, even though he supported the idea of a probe, will see it as an attempt to obey Delhi's dictation, pander to Panneerselvam's demands and corner Sasikala. The feeling in the Mannargudi family is that while OPS raised the banner of revolt against the family and mobilised public sentiment against it, it is EPS who ended up enjoying the fruits of that rebellion. 

As far as Dhinakaran is concerned, EPS was only meant to be a nightwatchman till he played the RK Nagar innings and replaced him. That plan came unstuck for other reasons and the Mannargudi family recoils at the sight of the nightwatchman inching close to hitting a double century in office.