Tamil Nadu political developments are on fast track and events are playing out not by day to day but minute to minute. September will be a crucial month for Tamil Nadu politics. DMK, the principal opposition party is spouting venom against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP in particular.
But at the same time, the AIADMK which is the embodiment of anti-DMK feelings is solidly behind BJP and with the Prime Minister. Had it not been for the the AIADMK massive votings in the Presidential and Vice Presidential polls, Ram Nath Kovind and M Venkaiah Naidu would not be occupying the high positions in New Delhi. AIADMK has contributed much to BJP.
Similarly, BJP also is keen to ensure that AIADMK is keeping their party intact, which is not only anti- Congress, but is also on the same line as the Hindutva policy plank.
Come September first week, the Speaker of the Tamil Nadu assembly will suspend 19 MLAs who have shown their allegiance to TTV Dhinakaran. With this the political drama will gear up. Followed by September 12, 2017, when the General Council of AIADMK will be held. The motive of the meeting is to remove Sasikala from the party. Internal dynamism in AIADMK will further flare up. TTV Dhinakaran will aggravate the political issues. Interestingly if he is pushed to the corner Dhinakaran may also have to take asylum with DMK. You never know.
September 20, 2017 the 2G verdict will be pronounced in New Delhi. Whichever side the verdict goes, it will create an atmosphere of anti-DMK feelings. Reason being that even the Congress is also keen to distance itself from the 2G verdict and this will not go down well with the DMK. Two elections Jayalalithaa won on the 2G plank. Jayalalithaa routed DMK in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, where she won all the seats and Congress was also wiped out in Tamil Nadu. Again thanks to 2G negative votings.
The fall out of these two developments will not only bring about negative politics but could speed up the downfall of the Edapadi Palaniswami government. TTV Dhinakaran, who is in touch with the archrival DMK leader M K Stalin, son of Karunanidhi, will move a no-confidence motion in the Tamil Nadu assembly, there will be a hue and cry to have a floortest of political strength in Tamil Nadu assembly. Then as you, it will be chaos.
By the middle of October 2017, there is a possibility of Tamil Nadu being put under President’s Rule. I say this because once the Edapadi Palaniswami government is toppled, TTV Dhinakaran will not join with DMK. Governor Vidyasagar Rao will have to call the next majority party that is DMK to form the Government. MK Stalin having being bitten twice at the head of a minority government will dare not go in for stop-gap arrangements, instead DMK would prefer to go in for early elections to the Tamil Nadu assembly. Say by, early next year by February 2018 Tamil Nadu will go in for state assembly polls.
#By that time, will AIADMK get back their two leaves election symbol?
#Will Rajinikanth enter Tamil Nadu politics? Will Kamal Haasan align with the DMK front?
These are all certain questions, but the time alone is the best answer.
Understanding Tamil Nadu Politics
To understand Tamil Nadu politics, the caste system, distribution of political power and men behind the Tamil Nadu tamasha have to be analysed. Predominant castes which rule AIADMK are Thevar, Gownder and Nadar. Minorities are also more in numbers The political power centres are two. First is Edapadi Palaniswami Chief Minister and second is the most rich politician in AIADMK - TTV Dhinakaran.
Soon after the removal of Sasikala as General Secretary, the AIADMK council which is likely to be too stormy will immediately approach Election Commission to ensure that the very popular two leaves election symbol of AIADMK is returned to the ruling AIADMK led by EPS.
Will Modi swing Tamil Nadu in 2019 towards BJP?
There are doubts about this question. 2019 is not far away. Just 18 months for Lok Sabha polls. BJP is organisationally weak. But at the same time, the popularity graph of Narendra Modi amongst the voters below the age of 35 is huge. That is the only one positive aspect. Tamil Nadu is in a sorry state of affairs. Nationalists parties like Congress and BJP - the so-called all India parties are too weak. They do not have grassroot workers. Both have to depend on either DMK or AIADMK. The only hope for Tamil Nadu is a non-Dravidian party to rule for a brief period. The nationalists forces in Tamil Nadu are vying to show the doors to the Kazhagams. Until then the Tamil Nadu tamasha, of course, continues...
R Rajagopalan is a senior correspondent in New Delhi. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect those of Asianet Newsable
