1. Confiscation and auction of Jayalalithaa's properties 

The Manargudi group or Sasikala’s family is experiencing some discomfort now that the Tamil Nadu state government headed by Edapadi Palanisamy has ordered the confiscation of Jayalalithaa’s properties.The district collectors of the respective areas have seized at least 68 properties over the state. This has, in fact, led to the brewing of a new political crisis in the Sasikala camp. These sharp differences between Palanisamy and Sasikala camp indicate towards a possibility of a third split in the AIADMK or even more disastrous results which might bring down the present Edapadi government.

Also read: 68 properties of Jayalalithaa confiscated by TN government, auction to be held soon

Interestingly, the opposite side - the O Pannerselvam group is instigating the Sasikala cadre by saying that “Amma's properties are being auctioned by Amma’s government itself”. 

TTV Dinakaran is expecting bail on Wednesday, May 31 and if he gets bail, this issue will be inflamed further. Interesting days lie ahead for the AIADMK front as the confiscation issue is bound to boomerang on the Edapadi Camp. The properties of Jayalalithaa and the rest will be auctioned based on the ruling of the Supreme court. This might fetch the State Government say few hundred crores for the exchequer. There are quiet plans are afoot.

Rumours are that in true filmy style Sasikala's men will overcrowd the auction centres where the properties will be auctioned and somehow secure the highest bid so that the properties remain with Sasikala and her relatives. This is one quiet strategy the Sasikala camp worked out.

Also read: AIADMK family not going to get back together anytime soon


2. Why few senior ministers from the Edapadi camp want nothing to do with the confiscation orders? 

Some senior ministers in the Edapadi council owe their allegiance to Sasikala and therefore are restless. They argued in favour of delaying the issuance of order after filing an appeal in the Supreme Court. In fact, it is suspected that the plan was to delay the process so that Sasikala's views from jail would be known. Sasikala still commands at least 25 to 30 MLAs. Over and above the objections of few ministers, Palanisamy instructed Chief Secretary  Girija Vaidyanathan to issue orders to the Directorate of Anti Corruption  and Vigilance to proceed with the apex court orders.

Also read: Once united AIADMK is being pulled in three ways: Palanisamy


3. Has Edapadi lost Sasikala's confidence?

These orders have far-reaching political repercussions. This will lead to a commotion in the Sasikala faction. With this order, the Chief Minister Edapadi Palanisamy has lost the confidence of Sasikala, say to an extent of 30 to 40 per cent.  Obviously these differences will further widen.


4. What is on TTV Dinakaran's mind?

T TV Dinakaran, who is in Tihar Jail in New Delhi, through visitors got wind of the instructions of the CM to confiscate Amma's properties. AIADMK Sasikala faction have been asking Dinakaran how can the government which follows the footprints of Amma directly confiscate and auction Amma's properties? They have been known to say that it was unfair and that the AIADMK should approach the apex court to get a stay as the sentiments of one section of AIADMK cadre have been hurt. 

Also read: Like aunt, like nephew? TTV Dinakaran arrested


5. Why O Pannerselvam camp is in an upbeat mood?

It is possible that due to these emotional upsets Palanisamy could have expedited the auctioning of Jayalalithaa’s properties. OPS camp spokesperson Dr V Maitreyan told this correspondent that the apex court has ruled that Jayalalithaa’s properties should be confiscated, but as a ruling party they can appeal and wait for the apex court decision. The OPS camp overwhelmed by the huge media coverage on the confiscation, want the Edapadi government be toppled. But for them timing is important. They may be banking on this to turn the tide against Sasikala and this will prove favourable to the OPS camp.


6.Tension building in the Sasikala Camp

Certainly tension is brewing in the Sasikala camp, which is visible on ground as well. Sasikala camp is keen to know what transpired between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Palanisamy during their one to one meeting. In this meeting the CM had taken his co-brother Manickam and not some political heavyweight from the Sasikala faction. It could be because of fear that Edapadi’s plans of action may be leaked to the Sasikala camp. Also, we’d like to bring to mind the timing of the CM-PM meeting, following which the orders from the Chief Secretary came to the district collectors to confiscate Amma's properties. 

Also read: Exclusive: After PM's meet, suspicious AIADMK factions fracture even further


7. Edapadi is under pressure over murder cases in Kodanadu 

The murders in Jayalalithaa’s Kodanadu’s estate have caused the Tamil Nadu CM some sleepless nights. There have been multiple suspicious killings as far as the Kodanadu properties are concerned. The Sasikala camp has been pressurising Edapadi on being slow to act, while the Kerala Police have already drawn their conclusions. Also, the OPS camp is demanding a CBI probe into these killings. These killings are related to Amma's properties only.

Also read: Kodanad murder mystery deepens: Here is what we know so far


8. What will Deepa now do about Poes Garden?

Deepa, a close relative of Jayalalithaa, is the heir apparent of the Poes Garden property. In the absence of a will from Jayalalithaa, the legal process will have to be initiated by Deepa. At the same time, Tamil Nadu Government wants to convert this into a memorial. The OPS camp has been demanding this from Day 1. If either of this happens Sasikala’s control on Poes Garden will go.

Also read: Jayalalitha's niece stakes claim on Poes Garden, threatens legal action

More complex matters related to Amma’s huge properties are likely to be exposed in the weeks to come, by  by the OPS camp of AIADMK. Whichever way you analyse the prevailing political and internal developments in two camps of AIADMK, these are interesting days ahead.