T20 World Cup 2024: Can Pakistan qualify for Super Eights? Scenarios for Babar Azam & Co. explained

Pakistan's cricket team has faced harsh criticism for their underwhelming performance in the current T20 World Cup. However, they received a significant boost when their neighbouring country, India, secured a victory against the United States. This outcome favours Pakistan's quest to qualify for the 'Super 8s' stage of the tournament.

Current Scenario in Group A

Pakistan's campaign began with consecutive defeats against the USA and India, putting their chances of advancing to the next round in jeopardy. These defeats mean Pakistan's fate is now partially out of their hands, relying on favourable results from other matches in Group A.

India's win over the USA ensured their qualification for the 'Super 8s'. The seven-wicket defeat for the USA also meant their net run rate (NRR) of +0.127 is now inferior to Pakistan's +0.191, thanks to Pakistan's seven-wicket win over Canada.

The current standings in Group A are:

India: 3 matches, 6 points (NRR +1.137) - Qualified for 'Super 8s'
USA: 3 matches, 4 points (NRR +0.127)
Pakistan: 3 matches, 2 points (NRR +0.191)
Canada: 3 matches, 2 points (NRR -0.493)
Ireland: 2 matches, 0 points (NRR -1.712)

With three matches left to be played in Group A, and a brewing storm in Florida threatening to disrupt these games, Pakistan's path to the 'Super 8s' involves several scenarios:

Upcoming Matches in Group A

USA vs Ireland (June 14)
India vs Canada (June 15)
Pakistan vs Ireland (June 16)
Scenarios for Pakistan's Qualification

If USA Beat Ireland

A USA victory over Ireland would take the USA to six points, securing their place in the 'Super 8s' alongside India. This result would eliminate Pakistan, as no other team could reach six points.

If Ireland Beat USA

An Irish win over the USA would significantly benefit Pakistan. This outcome would worsen the USA's NRR, already inferior to Pakistan's, allowing Pakistan to qualify by beating Ireland.

If USA vs Ireland Is Washed Out

If the match between the USA and Ireland is washed out, both teams will receive split points, taking the USA to five points. This would be enough for the USA to advance to the 'Super 8s', making the remaining matches in the group irrelevant for Pakistan's qualification hopes.

India vs Canada

This match would be inconsequential if the USA beat Ireland. However, if Ireland wins, Canada would need to defeat India and improve their negative NRR significantly to have a chance. If India wins, Canada will be eliminated.
If Pakistan Beat Ireland

This scenario is relevant only if the USA loses to Ireland. A Pakistan victory over Ireland would then take Pakistan to the second spot in Group A, edging out the USA on NRR. If the USA wins against Ireland, Pakistan's match against Ireland would no longer matter.

If Pakistan vs Ireland Is Washed Out

A washout in this game would give both teams one point each, leaving Pakistan with three points. This outcome would allow the USA to progress to the 'Super 8s' even if they lose their final match against Ireland.
Conclusion

Pakistan's journey to the 'Super 8s' hinges on several variables and results from other matches. For Babar Azam and his team, the key is to stay hopeful and prepared to capitalize on any favorable outcomes. While their destiny isn't entirely in their hands, strategic victories and a bit of luck could still see Pakistan advance to the next round.