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IMF predicts Indian economy to grow at 9.5% in 2021, 8.5% in 2022

Another important worldwide concern, according to Gopinath, is the need to reduce the rise in global temperatures and contain the rising negative impacts of climate change. 

IMF predicts Indian economy to grow at 9.5 per cent in 2021, 8.5 per cent in 2022 gcw
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New Delhi, First Published Oct 12, 2021, 8:07 PM IST
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According to the latest forecasts issued by the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, India's GDP would expand by 9.5 per cent in 2021 and 8.5 per cent in 2022, after contracting by 7.3% owing to the Covid-19 epidemic. India's current World Economic Outlook growth estimate stays unaltered from the last WEO (World Economic Outlook) update in July. However, it is a three-percentage-point decline in 2021 and a 1.6-percentage-point reduction from its April projections.

According to the most recent WEO report, issued before the IMF and Globe Bank annual meetings, the world will grow at a 5.9 per cent annual rate in 2021 and a 4.9 per cent annual rate in 2022. The United States is expected to increase by 6% this year and 5.2% the next year.  On the other hand, China is expected to grow at 8% in 2021 and 5.6% in 2022, according to the IMF.

The IMF's Chief Economist, Gita Gopinath, stated that, compared to their July prediction, the global growth projection for 2021 has been cut down to 5.9 per cent and is constant for 2022 at 4.9 per cent. However, this little headline change conceals significant downgrades for several nations. Gopinath said that the outlook for the low-income developing country group had darkened considerably due to worsening pandemic dynamics. The reduction also reflects the advanced economy group's more challenging near-term outlook, owing in part to supply disruptions.

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"Partially offsetting these adjustments, forecasts for several commodity exporters have been improved as commodity prices have risen. Pandemic-related disruptions to contact-intensive industries have led most nations' labour market recovery to lag substantially behind output recovery," added Gopinath.

Observing that the hazardous disparity in economic prospects among nations remains a crucial concern, she stated that aggregate output for advanced economies is anticipated to restore its pre-pandemic trend path in 2022 and exceed it by 0.9% in 2024. She highlighted that aggregate production in the emerging market and developing economy group (excluding China) is expected to be 5.5 per cent lower in 2024 than before the pandemic.

Also Read | India may record double-digit growth in 2021, be the fastest-growing major economy: IMF

Noting that the ongoing grip of the pandemic on global society is a major common reason behind these difficult problems, Gopinath stated that the top policy objective is to vaccinate at least 40% of the population in each country by the end of 2021, and 70% by the middle of 2022. Another important worldwide concern, according to Gopinath, is the need to reduce the rise in global temperatures and contain the rising negative impacts of climate change. The forthcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow will require more aggressive promises to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

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