Goldman Sachs has cut its Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast to USD 80 from USD 90, citing faster Middle East oil supply recovery following a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The bank also lowered its 2027 average Brent forecast to USD 75.
Goldman Sachs has cut its Brent crude oil price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 to USD 80 per barrel from USD 90 earlier, citing an expected faster recovery in Middle East oil supply following a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
In its latest Oil Analyst report, Goldman Sachs said it is reducing its price outlook after US President Donald Trump's announcement of an interim agreement that would lift the US blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "We reduce our oil price forecast following President Trump's announcement of an interim deal that would lift the US blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz," the report said.
The investment bank said it now assumes that Persian Gulf oil exports will return to pre-war levels by the end of July, a month earlier than its previous expectation of the end of August. "We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalise to pre-war levels by the end of July (vs. end of August previously)," Goldman Sachs said.
Revised Price Forecasts
As a result, the bank lowered its 2026 fourth-quarter Brent forecast to USD 80 per barrel from USD 90 earlier. It also reduced its average Brent forecast for 2027 to USD 75 per barrel from USD 80 previously. "We are reducing our 2026Q4 Brent forecast to USD 80 (vs. USD 90 previously) and to USD 75 (vs. USD 80 prior) for the 2027 average", the report stated.
Goldman Sachs also lowered its outlook for US benchmark crude, saying it now expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average USD 75 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and USD 70 per barrel in 2027.
Supply Outlook and Risks
The report said the recovery in Gulf oil exports could be stronger than expected as producers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may increase production more aggressively. "Producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE might respond more strongly to low OECD commercial stocks this summer with even larger production increases than our above pre-war levels base case," Goldman Sachs said.
The bank also noted that Iranian production could rise if sanctions are eased. At the same time, Goldman Sachs cautioned that risks to the supply recovery remain. It said renewed hostilities in the region, attacks on shipping or disruptions to negotiations could delay the normalisation process. The report noted that while its base case assumes a recovery in Gulf exports by the end of July, risks around the outlook remain "two-sided".
Future Scenarios and Price Resilience
Despite forecasting a large global oil surplus in 2027, Goldman Sachs expects crude prices to remain relatively resilient. The bank said strategic stockpiling by countries and a continuing geopolitical risk premium are likely to provide support to prices. "We forecast resilient 2027 Brent/WTI prices in line with our long-term fair values of USD 75/70 despite a large 3.2mb/d 2027 surplus," the report said.
Goldman Sachs also outlined a bullish scenario under which Brent crude could rise sharply if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist. "Brent might rise above USD 130 in late 2026 and average USD 105 in 2027" if Hormuz remains disrupted through 2027, the report said.
However, under a downside scenario of faster export normalisation, stronger supply growth and weaker demand, Brent could average below USD 70 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and below USD 60 per barrel in 2027, according to the report. (ANI)
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