Why is it always in December? Decoding the seasonal surge of Covid-19 variants and rise of JN.1

By Sunita IyerFirst Published Dec 25, 2023, 11:43 AM IST
Highlights

Exploring the recurring December phenomenon, this article delves into the seasonal surge of Covid-19 variants, focusing on the latest JN.1 variant, its characteristics, and the factors contributing to its emergence, with expert insights and a call for continued vigilance and preventive measures.

As the world grapples with yet another surge of a new Covid-19 variant, the familiar pattern emerges — it's December again. This article explores the recurring trend of variant spikes during this winter month, with a focus on the latest addition to the roster, the JN.1 variant. Delving into the historical context and scientific explanations, we seek to understand why December consistently witnesses the emergence of novel coronavirus variants.

The December Chronicles

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The winter of 2019 marked the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, disrupting global festivities as a unique virus from China invaded our lives. Fast forward four years, and while the pandemic has abated, the virus persists in evolving forms. This December introduces the JN.1 variant, classified as a "variant of interest" by the World Health Organisation (WHO). The lineage of JN.1 can be traced back to the Omicron variant, continuing the trend of significant variants surfacing in December.

Also read: Explained: Is JN.1 sub variant of Covid-19 a cause of concern?

JN.1: A Closer Look

Part of the BA.2.86 lineage, a descendant of Omicron, JN.1 carries an additional mutation in the spike protein. Dr. G C Khilnani, Chairman of PSRI Institute of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine, notes that while the variant causes mild illness, it poses a potential risk to susceptible populations, including the elderly, obese, and those with underlying health conditions.

Seasonal Influence on Covid-19

December seems to play a pivotal role in the evolution of Covid-19 variants, as evidenced by the emergence of Alpha, Beta, and Gamma in December 2020 and the Omicron variant in December 2021. Scientific studies highlight the impact of cold and dry winter conditions on the surge in Covid-19 cases. The transition from summer to winter creates an environment conducive to the virus's spread, contributing to heightened transmission during December.

The Role of Holiday Travel

The holiday season, synonymous with December, has historically facilitated the global spread of Covid-19 variants. Travel during this time, characterized by increased social gatherings, accelerates transmission. The JN.1 variant, spreading rapidly across the globe, benefits from the heightened movement during the holiday season. While international travel has returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, experts emphasize that it is an augmenting factor rather than the primary cause of the current surge.

Also read: COVID-19 anxiety grips Bengaluru ahead of Christmas, New Year celebrations

Expert Perspectives and Caution

Amidst concerns about the JN.1 variant, experts advocate for caution without inducing panic. Dr. Devashish Desai, Consultant in Infectious Diseases at Ruby Hall Clinic, advises increased caution for individuals with comorbidities, the elderly, the obese, and the unvaccinated. Vaccination and mask-wearing remain crucial defenses against viral infection, with WHO asserting that current vaccines provide protection against severe disease and death from JN.1 and other circulating variants of SARS-CoV-2.

As the year draws to a close and celebrations commence, the invisible nemesis of Covid-19 lingers. Strengthening immune defenses through vaccination and adhering to preventive measures becomes paramount, echoing lessons learned from past encounters with the virus. The December enigma continues, emphasizing the need for global vigilance and a proactive approach to mitigate the impact of emerging variants on public health.

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