UAE sees fertility rate drop in last 30 years, says UN report; EXPLAINED

The fertility rate in the UAE has seen a significant decline over the past 30 years but is projected to see a slight increase in the coming decades, according to a recent UN report.

The World Fertility Report 2024 indicates that the number of live births per woman fell from 3.76 in 1994 to 1.21 in 2024. However, forecasts suggest a modest rise to 1.34 live births per woman by 2054. The government has taken proactive measures by establishing the Ministry of Family and upgrading the Ministry of Community Development to the Ministry of Community Empowerment.

These reforms aim to encourage family formation, empower households, strengthen family bonds, and enhance fertility rates, particularly among UAE nationals.

During a virtual session of the Federal National Council in January 2025, citizens highlighted that shorter working hours and extended maternity leave could help boost fertility rates. Many mothers shared that long workdays left them with limited time for family life and planning for additional children.

Key Factors:

Medical experts in the UAE have been warning that lifestyle choices are a major contributor to the declining fertility and birth rates among residents.

According to estimates from global consultancy Frost and Sullivan, by 2032, 97% of couples in emerging markets—including much of the Middle East and Africa—will face difficulties conceiving naturally.

Sophie Smith, founder and CEO of Nabta Health, noted that the factors affecting fertility rates in the UAE are likely similar to those seen worldwide. These include lifestyle habits, the rise in chronic health conditions, environmental pollution, and exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals.

“The UAE government has launched a number of initiatives recently that could do a lot to boost fertility rates over the coming decades. One example is the UAE Quality of Life Strategy 2033, an ambitious initiative launched to position Dubai as a global leader in terms of quality of life and enhance its status as the world's preferred destination to live, work, and visit,” she said as quoted by Khaleej Times.

Smith highlighted that UAE citizens are now more aware and proactive when it comes to family planning. This includes exploring fertility preservation methods like egg freezing and paying greater attention to male fertility, which is responsible for 40-45% of infertility cases worldwide.

“These trends are helping to offset a preference for smaller families and delayed parenthood.”

She said as quoted by Khaleej Times, “UAE citizens are increasingly opting for more comprehensive fertility testing – both men and women – due to greater awareness in general about reproductive health and the impact of ageing on fertility, increased accessibility to a wide range of flexible diagnostic and testing options, and cultural shifts driven by policies such as mandatory pre-nuptial genetic testing, and workplace initiatives, such as fertility health check-ups and preventive care options.”

The UN’s advanced unedited report states that fertility rates below two births per woman are becoming the global standard. However, it cautions that extremely low fertility can result in population decline and an ageing society.

Gulf Arab nations are experiencing a similar trend. In Saudi Arabia, the most populous country in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the fertility rate has declined from 5.16 live births per woman in 1994 to 2.31 in 2024, with projections indicating a further drop to 1.85 over the next 30 years.

Oman has also seen a significant decline, with fertility rates falling from 5.36 live births per woman three decades ago to 2.51 in 2023. Meanwhile, Kuwait recorded the lowest fertility rate in the Gulf, decreasing from 3.27 in 1994 to 1.51 in 2024.

Global Fertility Rate :

The UN report highlighted a continued decline in global fertility rates, with the average in 2024 at 2.2 births per woman, down from around 5 in the 1960s and 3.3 in 1990.

Projections suggest this downward trend will persist, with fertility rates expected to reach the replacement level of 2.1 by 2050 and further decline to 1.8 births per woman by 2100.

Currently, 55% of countries and regions, accounting for over two-thirds of the global population, have fertility rates below 2.1 births per woman. This includes a diverse range of nations such as India, China, the United States, Brazil, and Russia.

Additionally, 17% of countries and territories had fertility levels above 2.1 in 2024 but are expected to fall below this threshold within the next 30 years. Among them, Indonesia and Bangladesh are the most populous.

Furthermore, over 10% of countries worldwide now have fertility rates below 1.4 births per woman. In four nations—China, South Korea, Singapore, and Ukraine—the rate has dropped below 1 birth per woman.