University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab projects 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide from September 2026 to February 2027 as a Super El Niño drives 1.2°C above normal and 44% more extreme-heat days; India faces about 15,800, including 7,400 between December and February.
The University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab (CIL) projects about 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide from September 2026 to February 2027 as a Super El Niño sharply elevates temperatures. India could account for roughly 15,800 of those deaths, with the risk expected to intensify as the country moves toward summer next year.
India is among the five worst-hit countries and is projected to have the fourth-highest toll behind Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan. About 7,400 additional heat deaths are expected in India between December 2026 and February 2027, with the burden building over time rather than peaking at the start of the period.
“Northern India’s winters are normally cold enough that heat rarely drives deaths there – so a warmer-than-usual winter won’t move the numbers much,” report co-author Emily Grover-Kopec said, according to The Indian Express. “Southern India is different. Normal winter temperatures there stay warm enough to cause heat deaths on their own, so abnormal warmth layered on top pushes deaths up sharply. That’s part of why India ranks 4th globally for projected heat deaths this winter, even as the sharper regional increases sit further south,” she added.
“Beyond the six-month forecast window, which runs through February, CIL expects India and Pakistan to see heat deaths keep rising into summer, as the same abnormally warm conditions persist and stack onto seasonal heat,” Grover-Kopec said.
What Is Driving The Risk
CIL estimates the Super El Niño will lift global land temperatures around 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal and bring 44% more extremely hot days than in a typical year. The current El Niño surpassed the highest temperature previously recorded for the phenomenon on Monday, months before its expected peak, and is unfolding atop human-driven warming.
“The [current El Niño] event is a huge redistribution of energy in the climate system and is dangerous, because it is unfolding on top of a much warmer, human-influenced climate system.”
“So, in many places around the world we will see never-before-experienced heat extremes, with all their consequences on health, food security and water stress. El Niño comes and goes, but as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels, it occurs on an increasingly hotter baseline, making it much more difficult for communities to deal with the consequences,” Prof Friederike Otto of Imperial College London told The Guardian.
Beyond India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan and Brazil are projected to record the five highest numbers of additional deaths. The Sahel countries of Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad could see roughly 66,800 combined; in Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are projected to see around 19,400. The United States is among the 20 highest-burden countries, with around 3,500.
Global Burden And How It Was Estimated
CIL derived projections from temperature–mortality relationships for 24,378 regions, paired with seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Results are measured against 1996–2025 averages and incorporate uncertainty from a 51-member forecast ensemble and from mortality–temperature estimates. The report will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal.
“People have been able to forecast when there’s going to be shocks to crops, and give advance warning of that,” CIL co-founder Prof Michael Greenstone said. “This new report is opening the door to being able to do it for an even more important outcome – I would say the most important outcome – which is death.”
“Increasing emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year,” report co-author Dr Tamma Carleton of the University of California, Berkeley, said. “But 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency.. We need to mobilise now to design, deploy and evaluate the tools that will save lives in the years ahead.” The World Food Programme has warned El Niño impacts could push about 50 million people into acute hunger and drive up food prices.
