Ex-diplomat Nirupama Rao says India-US ties are on complex terrain as Sec of State Marco Rubio visits. The visit is key for reassurance on Indo-Pacific strategy, energy flows from the Gulf, and the reliability of American strategic commitments.
New Delhi [India], May 23 (ANI): Former Foreign Secretary of India and Ambassador to the United States, Nirupama Rao, has provided a comprehensive analysis of the geopolitical shifts shaping the subcontinent as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits New Delhi. In an assessment focusing on strategic friction points and emerging diplomatic balances, the veteran diplomat underscored that the bilateral relationship is traversing a highly complex geopolitical terrain.
In an exclusive written interview to ANI, the former Foreign Secretary highlighted that the timing of the high-profile American visit holds immense strategic weight. The diplomatic engagement occurs against the backdrop of significant shifts in the global order, particularly following major leadership summits and ongoing hostilities in West Asia. Rubio's itinerary from May 23 to 26, which spans Kolkata, Agra, Jaipur, and New Delhi, carries immense diplomatic weight due to critical energy negotiations and scheduled minister-level engagements with Quad partner countries. This extensive tour sets the stage for high-stakes regional diplomacy, as New Delhi is set to host the Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting on May 26.
The Shifting Geopolitical Atmosphere
Evaluating the broader strategic landscape, Rao observed that "Rubio's visit comes at a particularly consequential moment. It follows not only the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, but also the continuing US-Iran conflict and the widening instability in West Asia and the Gulf. Seen together, these developments have altered the geopolitical atmosphere in which India-US relations now operate."
This shifting atmosphere has placed a distinct set of priorities on New Delhi's diplomatic agenda. Rao noted that "Rubio arrives in New Delhi at a moment when India is seeking reassurance on several fronts simultaneously: the future of Indo-Pacific strategy after the Trump-Xi engagement, the stability of energy flows from the Gulf, and the broader reliability of American strategic commitments."
Navigating A 'More Complex Phase'
Despite these pressing anxieties, the structural foundations of the bilateral partnership remain firm, even as both capitals navigate new operational friction points. "The relationship between India and the United States remains structurally strong. But it is entering a more complex phase," Rao stated.
Addressing these economic undercurrents, Rao explained that "the tariff disputes have certainly caused friction, particularly because India believed the strategic partnership had acquired enough depth to withstand tactical economic disagreements. But the real challenge today is the cumulative effect of several developments occurring simultaneously: trade tensions, the Trump administration's outreach to China, renewed engagement with Pakistan, and the destabilising effects of the Iran-US war on the wider region."
"From India's perspective, there is concern about whether the United States is entering a more transactional phase globally -- one in which strategic partnerships are increasingly subordinated to short-term bargains and crisis management," she added.
Rao emphasised that "the Gulf conflict sharpens this concern because India is deeply exposed to the consequences of instability there. Millions of Indians live and work in the Gulf, remittance flows are vital, and India's energy dependence on the region remains substantial."
Energy Cooperation: From Commerce to Geopolitics
Consequently, the visit of the top US diplomat serves as a vital tool to rebuild mutual trust and look beyond immediate transactional disputes. "Rubio's visit is therefore important because it seeks to restore strategic confidence at a time of systemic uncertainty. It signals that Washington understands India cannot simply be viewed through the lens of tariffs or trade balances," Rao maintained.
A central pillar of this confidence-building exercise is the rapidly evolving matrix of bilateral energy trade, which has transformed from a purely commercial track into a critical geopolitical asset. According to Rao, "energy cooperation is now moving from the commercial realm into the heart of geopolitics."
"The US-Iran war and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have dramatically reinforced India's need for diversified and resilient energy partnerships. India cannot afford excessive vulnerability to geopolitical shocks in any single region," she pointed out.
While hydrocarbon trade remains an immediate priority, the scope of this energy architecture is poised to expand into next-generation technologies and sustainable frameworks. Rao stated that "in that context, American LNG and crude supplies become strategically important. But the relationship will go beyond hydrocarbons. It will increasingly encompass nuclear energy, green hydrogen, battery technologies, critical minerals, and resilient energy supply chains."
"At the same time, India will continue to insist on strategic flexibility in energy sourcing. If the Gulf crisis persists, India may continue diversifying among the United States, Russia, the Gulf, and other suppliers. This is not ideological balancing; it is energy realism," she argued.
Fragmentation of Global Energy Arrangements
This shift in state behaviour reflects a larger, systemic breakdown of traditional global supply lines accelerated by the ongoing tensions in West Asia. Rao observed that "one important consequence of the Iran conflict is that it has accelerated the fragmentation of global energy arrangements. Countries are increasingly looking for bilateral or flexible arrangements outside older frameworks."
"That makes energy cooperation between India and the United States strategically important -- but also strategically delicate," she remarked.
The Evolving Role of the Quad
Rao noted that "the Quad is certainly evolving, but perhaps not in the direction of a formal alliance or tightly institutionalised bloc. In fact, the present moment reveals both the strengths and the limitations of the Quad as a strategic framework."
The fundamental strategic drivers that brought the four democracies together continue to remain valid, gaining greater urgency amidst shifting regional dynamics. "The underlying logic behind the Quad remains strong: concerns about the Indo-Pacific balance of power, maritime security, technology competition, supply-chain resilience, critical minerals and the future strategic order in Asia. Those drivers have not disappeared. If anything, they have intensified," Rao explained.
Simultaneously, regional partners are increasingly factoring in the potential for policy shifts in Washington, driven by changing political leadership and competing global crises. "At the same time, there is growing recognition in Asia that American political attention can fluctuate sharply depending on presidential priorities and global crises. President Trump's style of diplomacy is highly transactional and leader-driven. The recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, combined with Washington's heavy preoccupation with the Iran conflict and instability in West Asia, has created understandable uncertainty among US partners in the Indo-Pacific," she added.
Towards a Partner-Driven and Functional Quad
This systemic uncertainty has prompted regional capitals to re-evaluate their own roles within the grouping, leading to a more distributed sense of ownership. Rao stated that "countries such as Japan, Australia and India are all watching carefully to assess whether the Quad will continue receiving sustained strategic attention from Washington at the highest political levels."
Rather than signalling a decline, this phase could mark the beginning of a more mature, partner-led evolution of the Indo-Pacific architecture. "That does not mean the Quad is weakening. But it may mean the Quad evolves into a more decentralised and partner-driven arrangement," she suggested.
Rao further argued that "in fact, one could argue that countries like India, Japan and Australia may increasingly need to 'own' the Quad more actively rather than viewing it primarily as a US-anchored initiative. Japan has already invested considerable intellectual and strategic energy into the Indo-Pacific concept over the years, while Australia and India now see growing value in building durable regional networks that can survive fluctuations in American politics."
This transition is expected to steer the grouping away from purely political rhetoric towards tangible, outcomes-based cooperation across critical sectors. "As a result, the Quad may become less rhetorical and more functional -- focused on practical cooperation in technology, maritime awareness, resilient supply chains, critical minerals, semiconductors and infrastructure coordination," she noted.
"For India, this evolution may actually be comfortable. India has always preferred flexible strategic coalitions over rigid alliance structures. A more balanced and collectively owned Quad may ultimately prove more resilient than one dependent entirely on American political momentum," Rao asserted.
India's Pursuit of 'Strategic Autonomy'
Rao observed that "India has long understood that American foreign policy oscillates between strategic vision and tactical improvisation. Under Trump, this unpredictability has become more visible."
"The simultaneous pursuit of tariffs against partners, outreach to Beijing, engagement with Pakistan, and escalation with Iran creates the impression of a highly transactional global posture. From New Delhi's perspective, this reinforces the importance of strategic autonomy," she explained.
"The Iran war is especially significant in this regard. It underlines how quickly regional crises can spill into global economic and geopolitical instability. India has deep relationships across West Asia -- with Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the United States -- and cannot afford to be drawn into binary alignments," Rao emphasised.
"What India seeks is not equidistance, but equilibrium," she stated.
Multi-Alignment in a Multipolar Order
This approach ensures that while India continues to build its vital partnership with the United States, it actively guards against strategic overdependence. Rao added that "India will continue deepening relations with the United States because the strategic logic remains compelling. But recent events also strengthen India's instinct to preserve multiple partnerships and avoid overdependence on any one pole of power."
"Washington is more accepting of India's multi-alignment than before, largely because it increasingly recognises that India's strategic value lies precisely in its independent weight," Rao observed.
The current escalation in West Asia highlights the practical utility of India's multi-layered diplomatic channels, which provide valuable communication links during geopolitical crises. "The ongoing Iran conflict actually illustrates why India's approach evolved the way it did. India has relationships with almost every major actor in West Asia: Iran, Israel, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. That network of ties gives India diplomatic room for manoeuvre in moments of crisis," she explained.
Similarly, India's historical ties with other global powers and its leadership role in the Global South reflect its distinct national interests and global aspirations. Rao noted that "historically, India's ties with Russia continue to reflect defence realities and energy considerations, while its leadership role in the Global South reflects broader civilisational and political ambitions."
"The United States may not always be comfortable with every dimension of India's multi-alignment. But there is now greater realism in Washington. India is not a treaty ally and does not see itself as part of any bloc politics," she stated.
"Ironically, the present global environment -- where even major powers are simultaneously competing and cooperating with one another -- has made India's approach appear less exceptional and more reflective of the emerging multipolar order itself," Rao concluded. (ANI)
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by Asianet Newsable English staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)