Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen advised investors not to overvalue holiday price movement as Bitcoin enters Christmas Eve.
- Bitcoin was trading near $87,000 on Christmas Eve of 2025, down about 12% year over year after peaking above $120,000 earlier this year.
- The apex crypto’s Christmas price has risen from $4 in 2011 to nearly $99,000 in 2024, underlining its long-term growth despite repeated dips.
- Analysts say Bitcoin’s path into 2026 will be driven by market structure, with some pointing to historical four-year patterns rather than holiday price moves.
Bitcoin’s price history over the holidays tells a story of long-term growth punctuated by dramatic swings. From just $4 in 2011, it climbed steadily to around $99,000 by Christmas 2024.
According to the U.S. Finance Reference, Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory shows repeated cycles of high and low prices alongside steady structural growth. Bitcoin ended 2011 near $3 to $4, rose to around $13 in 2012, and surged during its first major bull run in 2013, before closing 2014 below $400.
Prices remained subdued through 2015, then climbed steadily in 2016 and accelerated sharply into 2017, when Bitcoin ended the year near $14,000. The market retraced in 2018, followed by a partial recovery in 2019, before rallying strongly through 2020 and 2021.
Bitcoin then declined sharply in 2022, closing the Christmas period near $16,800 amid the broader crypto market downturn. Prices rebounded in 2023, with Bitcoin trading around $43,700, before surging to nearly $99,000 in 2024, marking a new cycle high as institutional participation increased.
By late 2025, Bitcoin was trading near $87,000, well below its earlier peak but far above prior cycle lows, according to historical pricing data from the U.S. Finance Reference.
2025: A Volatile Year For Bitcoin
Over the last year, Bitcoin was down 11.9%, reflecting a volatile 2025 that saw Bitcoin trade above $120,000 earlier in the year before sliding into the high-$80,000 range by late December.
On Stocktwits, Bitcoin’s retail sentiment remained in ‘extremely bearish’ territory, accompanied by ‘normal’ levels of chatter, over the past day.
2026 Bitcoin Prediction
In an interview, Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz predicted that Bitcoin’s next phase of growth would be driven more by infrastructure development than short-term price momentum. Despite 2025’s underperformance, he said he remains optimistic about crypto’s long-term role, citing rising interest from governments, financial institutions, and platforms combining banking services with crypto assets.
Separately, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said investors should be cautious about attaching significance to holiday price action, including around Christmas 2025, noting that Bitcoin’s broader market structure has historically mattered more than seasonal moves.
He added that Bitcoin has tended to form major cycle lows roughly every four years, pointing to 2018 and 2022, and said a similar window could emerge again around mid-2026. “Major lows tend to occur on a four-year cadence,” Cowen said, adding that such periods have previously coincided with phases where altcoins begin to stabilize after extended underperformance rather than immediate market reversals.
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