Markets overreacted to Warsh’s comments, Visser said, and expects the Fed to hold, citing AI-driven productivity as the rationale against near-term rate rises.
- Bitcoin recovering its 200-day moving average, “north of 70,” would start “the next phase of crypto,” possibly in the second part of the year, said Jordi Visser.
- Bitcoin is expected to be the "best performer" among asset classes, he said, noting its low volatility versus a tech momentum index reaching 25-year highs.
- Visser warned that a massive bank attack could send global markets down 10% in a single day, and expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged despite hawkish pricing.
On Saturday, macro investor Jordi Visser said that if Bitcoin (BTC) reclaims its 200-day moving average, it would trigger “the beginning of the next phase of crypto.”
Visser spoke to Anthony Pompliano on his podcast that the level would confirm his thesis if all three conditions are met, putting it "north of 70" thousand dollars. Markets are overestimating Fed hawkishness, inflation is cooling, and the AI earnings growth remains intact, he said.
"We'll see if it happens in the second half of the year. I think it will," he said. Sentiment around Bitcoin has gone to the extreme, Visser said, estimating that 60-70% of past holders “are questioning any involvement they’ve had.” He said he sees no reason to position for upside "until it gets above the 200-day." But the bearish narrative is old, he argued.
Bitcoin As The ‘Best Performer’ In The AI Trade
Bitcoin will be "the best performer,” the investor said, outperforming stocks, bonds and commodities such as silver. He pointed to a volatility gap: Bitcoin now trades near a 30 vol, he said, while the tech momentum index has traded at an 85 vol over the past 60 days – “higher than any time over the last 25 years,” including the dot-com era. That dynamic, he argued, will make it more difficult for institutions to take on long crowded equity trades.
Visser tied the Bitcoin call to what he described as a “mid-cycle slowdown” in the AI trade, saying the easy cash in infrastructure names is gone. “These headwinds are not going away,” he said, citing growing government scrutiny of model companies, delays in permitting data centers and competition from Chinese open-source models.
Bitcoin’s price was trading at $62,970, up 0.5% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter moved to ‘low’ from ‘normal’ levels over the past day.
He cited the sell-off in Micron Technology (MU) following strong earnings as a warning sign, saying, "When you sell off on great news, that is not a good sign."
Still, the hardware expansion is nascent, said Visser, with “a $90 trillion build-out” in memory, infrastructure and humanoid robotics, he projected. Memory demand is insatiable, he said, telling investors to watch Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung, although he said memory stocks should now return 30% to 40% a year rather than "30 to 40% a week."
MU stock closed over 5% on Friday. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around MU remained in the ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter stayed at ‘high’ levels over the past day.
On Monetary Policy
Markets overreacted to recent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on monetary policy, and the central bank would remain on hold despite rate-hike pricing, Visser said. Warsh’s focus on AI-led productivity brought to mind the Greenspan-era strategy of not overreacting to near-term inflation prints, he said. He said he expects a negative June CPI print, driven by lower energy prices.
Visser also warned of a possible cyberattack-induced shock within a year, adding that a major bank hack could push global markets down 10% in a single day.
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