Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management forecasts Tesla will deliver 420,000 vehicles in the June quarter.
- Munster’s estimate exceeds Tesla’s company-compiled consensus estimate.
- Munster attributes the pickup primarily to consumers gradually returning to electric vehicles and easing brand damage from a year ago.
- But he also dismissed the delivery report, reiterating that FSD adoption matters more.
Shares of Tesla Inc (TSLA) rose 1% on Wednesday, clocking its fourth straight day of gains, as investors await the company’s second-quarter delivery numbers due on Thursday.
Wall Street Weighs In
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management forecasts Tesla will deliver 420,000 vehicles in the June quarter, modestly above Wall Street consensus and marking an improvement in underlying demand trends.
Tesla’s company-compiled consensus stands at 406,024 deliveries for the quarter, up 6% year-over-year, while FactSet's consensus is 401,000, up 4%.
Munster sees upside to the 406,000 consensus and expects Tesla to mark a growth of 9% year-over-year.
Adjusted Growth Shows Clearer Strength
Because June 2025 included Model S and X deliveries that are largely absent this year, headline growth understates core demand. Adjusting for the discontinued models, the 406,000 consensus implies Model 3 and Y deliveries up about 8% year-over-year — better than the 6% growth recorded in March.
At Munster’s 420,000 estimate, adjusted Model 3 and Y growth would hit approximately 12% year-over-year, representing Tesla’s strongest underlying delivery growth since December 2023.
Munster attributes the pickup primarily to consumers gradually returning to electric vehicles and easing brand damage from a year ago. He views high gas prices as a positive but secondary tailwind.
Autonomy Remains The Focus
Munster stresses that Full Self-Driving (FSD) adoption and the path to unsupervised autonomy matter more than quarterly delivery numbers. Active FSD subscriptions reached 1.28 million in March 2026, up 51% year-over-year, he noted.
“Don’t overthink the delivery number,” Munster said. “What resets the multiple is FSD monetization and a credible path to unsupervised FSD, and both moved this quarter. Trending deliveries is just the gravy on top.”
Gary Black Contradicts Munster
The Future Fund managing partner, Gary Black, argues that Tesla stock gains into Q2 deliveries are fueled by surging oil prices rather than FSD or AI excitement.
With most profits from EV sales, renewed optimism in the stock reflects likely delivery surprises driven by higher fuel costs, Black said.
How Did TSLA Retail Traders React?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA stock jumped from ‘neutral’ to ‘bullish’ over the past 24 hours, while message volume stayed at ‘high’ levels.
A Stocktwits user urged to buy the stock, stating that the stock will “blow with upcoming news.”
Another user expressed doubts, saying there is no telling what the delivery report will be like.
A third user highlighted that General Motors saw a steep 4.2% dive in sales in the second quarter in the U.S., owing to a drop in EV sales in spite of its long lineup of pure battery electric vehicles, implying a drop in EV demand.
TSLA stock has fallen by about 5% year-to-date.
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