Tesla influencer Alexandra Merz estimated a potential SpaceX merger would need nearly 1.98 billion ‘yes’ votes.
- Tesla rose 1% on Monday, joining Amazon as the only Magnificent Seven gainers while SPY and QQQ declined.
- Donald Trump pledged to protect Elon Musk after being asked about arrest claims, factory seizures and SpaceX nationalization.
- He also signaled willingness to consider preemptive pardons if needed.
Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) slipped nearly 1% overnight heading into Tuesday even as President Donald Trump pledged to protect CEO Elon Musk if he were targeted. However, Tesla investor and influencer Alexandra Merz warned that a potential SpaceX merger could face a difficult shareholder vote.
TSLA stock rose 1% on Monday, joining Amazon (AMZN), which gained 2.2%, as the only two ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks to finish higher. Tesla bucked the broader decline as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 0.5% and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) dropped 1.4%.
Trump Vows To Protect Musk, Considers Pardons
Trump promised to protect Musk after New York Post columnist and podcast host Miranda Devine raised claims about arresting him, seizing his factories and nationalizing SpaceX on her Pod Force One podcast.
“It's talk. But if it is talk, we'll have to protect them,” he said. Devine then asked whether he would consider preemptive pardons. Trump cited former President Joe Biden’s pardons and replied: “I would if I needed to, sure.” When asked whether that protection extended to everyone who had worked for him, Trump added: “I would not even think about it. I'd do it. I did it for J6.”
Tesla Influencer Flags High Bar For SpaceX Merger Approval
Alexandra Merz, known as TeslaBoomerMama on X, warned that a potential SpaceX merger could face a “tougher than ever” shareholder vote, even with Musk’s support.
“The threshold is simple on paper and hard in practice. Tesla needs a majority of all outstanding shares, not a majority of the votes that are cast,” she said. With 3.953 billion shares outstanding, that would mean nearly 1.98 billion ‘yes’ votes, according to her calculations. “Every share that does not vote counts against us,” she added.
Tesla has formed an independent special committee to explore closer ties with SpaceX, including a possible merger. “I think it would be a good idea, but it's really up to the special committees of both companies,” Musk said last month.
How Musk’s Shares And Retail Turnout Shape The Vote
Merz’s calculations start with 700 million shares Musk can vote directly, assuming he backs the deal.
Another 424 million shares from his 2025 pay award would not automatically vote ‘yes.’ Under Tesla’s voting agreement, they follow the voting proportions of other eligible shares represented at the meeting, including Musk’s own holdings. She also assumes 500 million ‘no’ votes from investors following ISS or Glass Lewis.
After accounting for these groups, Merz estimates that 65%-75% of the remaining votes cast would need to favor a merger. In her 68% turnout scenario, that means seven in 10 votes from the remaining group, or about 1 billion shares.
Turnout is another challenge. She estimates that 28% to 37% of shares outside Musk’s holdings went unvoted in past contests, including about 32% in the Texas redomiciliation vote.
Texas Megapack Factory Gets Customs Approval
Separately, Tesla received limited, 14-month approval to use foreign-trade-zone procedures at its Megapack factory in Brookshire, Texas, according to a Federal Register notice published on Monday.
The program lets manufacturers delay paying duties on imported parts until goods enter the U.S. market. Imported parts used in products exported directly from the zone can avoid U.S. customs duties.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘extremely bearish’ from ‘bearish’ levels a day ago amid a 476% surge in 24-hour message volumes.
One user said, “$MRVL $LITE same thing will happen when $SPCX and $TSLA merge and I’ll be ready to buy the shit out of that short term pull back as well. Both will come out stronger and dominate for years to come.”
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Another user said, “These two stocks $SPCX $TSLA will be sacrificial lamp. It is a matter of time”
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So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's worst performer, down about 10%.
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