The $14B Bet That Few Are Talking About – And Why Coinbase, Circle Stand To Gain

While Polymarket and Kalshi currently dominate event trading volumes, Clear Street sees Coinbase and Circle benefiting indirectly through infrastructure and settlement services.

• Clear Street expects long-term growth for Coinbase and Circle to be driven by the expansion and maturation of prediction market trading.
• The firm estimates the sector’s total addressable market could reach $14 billion by 2030, supported by $1.2 trillion in annual trading volume.
• That outlook compares with roughly $47 billion in trading volume and about $440 million in revenue generated in 2025.

Coinbase (COIN) and Circle Internet (CRCL) are “well-positioned” for long-term growth, a new research note from Clear Street said on Monday.

In a note to clients cited by TheFly, the firm said it expects growth to be fueled by the expansion and eventual evolution of prediction market trading. Clear Street estimates the total addressable market could reach $14 billion by 2030, supported by $1.2 trillion in annual trading volume, up from roughly $47 billion in 2025, which generated about $440 million in revenue. 

While Polymarket and Kalshi dominate current trading volumes, the firm said Coinbase and Circle stand to capture indirect upside by providing the infrastructure, settlement, and data services underpinning the ecosystem.

Clear Street said prediction platforms may ultimately develop into data and analytics providers, extracting value beyond transaction fees from real-time information flows. Coinbase and Circle's existing user bases and compliance frameworks give them a head start in monetizing this data goldmine. 

Stocks Show Muted Reaction

COIN’s stock traded flat in pre-market trade, with retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the company trending in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day, with chatter at ‘low’ levels. Meanwhile, CRCL’s stock edged 0.8% lower in pre-market trade, with retail sentiment trending in ‘extremely bearish’ territory over the past day as chatter slipped to ‘extremely low’ from ‘low’ levels.

Strategic Positioning Sets Coinbase, Circle Apart

Coinbase has accelerated into event trading with deals like its Kalshi collaboration and the acquisition of Clearing Company this month. Clear Street named Coinbase a top-three 2026 fintech pick alongside the likes of Nasdaq and S&P Global, citing tokenization and AI-driven shifts in finance. 

Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, is positioned to benefit through its role in facilitating high-volume, low-friction transactions. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around USDC trended in ‘neutral’ territory over the past day amid ‘normal’ levels of chatter.

Clear Street said stablecoins underpin much of the activity on event-driven platforms, and Circle’s treasury and liquidity infrastructure could scale alongside growing institutional use of digital assets.

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