Steel Dynamics, Nucor Stocks Gain After UBS Upgrade Driven By Trump’s Tariff Protections – Retail Enthusiasm Remains Muted

Shares of Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Nucor (NUE) climbed Monday after UBS upgraded both steelmakers to 'Buy' from 'Neutral.'

Steel Dynamics gained over 2% in afternoon trade, while Nucor rose more than 3% following the rating change.

UBS reaffirmed its $149 price target for Steel Dynamics, reflecting a potential 16% upside from current levels, and raised Nucor’s target to $160 from $156, implying a 21% gain.

The brokerage cited stronger-than-expected tariff protections for U.S. steel and aluminum, which have driven a rally in hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel prices. 

However, both stocks have dropped over the past month, with Steel Dynamics and Nucor losing more than 6% amid broader market declines triggered by President Donald Trump's new tariffs.

While some Canadian and Mexican goods received temporary exemptions, 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports remain in place, affecting Canada, Australia, and the European Union. 

UBS sees these tariffs as a positive for domestic steelmakers, positioning them for stronger earnings momentum and sector-wide benefits.

According to a CNBC report, UBS analyst Andrew Jones noted that steel futures have climbed to $945 per short ton this year as buyers adjust to supply constraints. He expects prices to stabilize at $800 per short ton between 2026 and 2028.

Jones highlighted Steel Dynamics’ strong cash flow potential, forecasting free cash flow yields of 10% to 14% in the coming years. Nucor, meanwhile, could benefit from tariffs on downstream goods, supporting medium-term growth.

He projects a 1% decline in U.S. steel demand in 2025, with weakness in the first half of the year. However, he anticipates an improvement in the second half, driven by economic recovery and federal stimulus measures.

Even if the U.S. maintains 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican steel, UBS expects reshoring efforts to mitigate supply disruptions and keep domestic steel prices supported around $800 per short ton.

Steel Dynamics retail sentiment and message volume on March 24 as of 2:25 p.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Steel Dynamics’ stock improved but remained in ‘bearish’ territory.

Steel Dynamics’ stock has gained 9% this year, but its value is down over 13% in the last 12 months.

Nucor retail sentiment and message volume on March 24 as of 2:25 p.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits

Meanwhile, retail sentiment around Nucor’s stock also showed a marginal uptick but remained in the ‘bearish’ zone. 

Nucor’s stock has gained 7% in 2025, but has lost over 35% of its value over the past 12 months.

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