IRDM benefited from Rocket Lab’s $8 billion takeover, while VSAT rallied on the value of its scarce spectrum assets.
- VSAT and IRDM were July’s only space-stock gainers, rising 8% and 4%, respectively.
- SpaceX’s $28.5 trillion market opportunity pitch is facing growing skepticism as shares slip below the IPO price.
- Retail traders remained bullish on ASTS and RKLB despite their weak monthly and year-to-date returns.
The space trade has come crashing back to Earth just over a month after SpaceX’s blockbuster public debut — and among the space stocks most popular among retail investors, only two of them are on track to finish the month in the green.
Viasat, Inc. (VSAT) has gained 8.4%, while Iridium Communications, Inc. (IRDM) has returned 4.1% so far this month.
Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) fell 29%, Virgin Galactic (SPCE) lost 28%, SpaceX (SPCX) dropped 35%, Rocket Lab (RKLB) slid 39%, Intuitive Machines (LUNR) and Redwire (RDW) sank 40%, Sidus Space (SIDU) tumbled 46%, and Momentus (MNTS) plunged 53%.
SpaceX’s $28.5 Trillion TAM Pitch Is Losing Its Shine
The selloff comes shortly after SpaceX pitched investors one of the most ambitious growth narratives ever placed in an IPO prospectus. SpaceX estimated that its total addressable market (TAM) could reach $28.5 trillion, calling it the largest actionable TAM in human history. The estimate included $370 billion in space solutions, $1.6 trillion in connectivity opportunities and a staggering $26.5 trillion in AI. The claim helped reinforce the idea that space could become the market’s next growth area. Before the listing, investors piled into public companies viewed as substitutes, partners, challengers or indirect beneficiaries of SpaceX.
But one month after the IPO, the enthusiasm has significantly faded. SpaceX itself fell below its $135 IPO price recently after retreating sharply from its post-listing peak. The downturn has coincided with rising concerns about valuation, spending requirements, execution risk and the supply of shares that could reach the market after lockup restrictions expire.
NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran was skeptical of the SpaceX TAM even before the IPO. While acknowledging that AI can touch nearly every industry, he said SpaceX’s estimate “borders on fantasy” and used materially smaller target markets in his own valuation. The July performance numbers appear to be delivering a similar verdict.
Retail Chased ASTS And RKLB — But Numbers Favored VSAT And IRDM
The month’s most surprising disconnect may be between retail conviction and actual stock performance. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits showed investors leaning bullish on AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab, two of the most prominent public alternatives to SpaceX. AST SpaceMobile is building a direct-to-device broadband network intended to connect ordinary smartphones through partnerships with wireless carriers. Rocket Lab is positioning itself as an end-to-end space company spanning launch, satellite manufacturing, and services from orbit. However, watchers for ASTS have risen 3% over the past month, while RKLB watchers saw a 4% rise.
Sentiment toward VSAT and IRDM, meanwhile, leaned ‘bearish,’ even though they were the only stocks in the basket to rise. The divergence becomes even harder to dismiss when looking beyond July. Viasat has returned 102% so far this year, while Iridium has gained 170%. Both stocks have more than doubled in 2026 and lead the group for the year as well. By comparison, ASTS was down 21% on a YTD basis, RKLB had lost 6%, and SPCE had fallen 20%.
Over the past three months, Stocktwits followers rose 24% for MNTS, 18% for SIDU, 17% for RKLB, 13% each for ASTS and IRDM, 9% for LUNR and 8% for VSAT. Yet, the stocks drawing the most attention among retail investors were not necessarily the ones that delivered the best returns in the sector.
Why IRDM And VSAT Became July’s Only Space Stock Winners
Iridium’s July outperformance had a clear catalyst: Rocket Lab’s $8 billion cash-and-stock takeover deal. The deal gives Rocket Lab far more than a satellite company, adding a global communications network, recurring revenue, government customers, 2.5 million subscribers and valuable L-band spectrum, pushing CEO Peter Beck’s vision of building a vertically integrated rival to SpaceX.
Viasat’s rally rests on a similar, though more speculative, bet: spectrum scarcity. As SpaceX, Amazon and AST SpaceMobile race to expand direct-to-device connectivity, Viasat’s globally coordinated L-band holdings have become more valuable. With Iridium being acquired and Amazon moving to Globalstar, investors now see Viasat as one of the last major standalone spectrum plays.
Oppenheimer called Viasat’s holdings one of the largest remaining blocks of globally harmonized spectrum critical to the emerging D2D market. Raymond James estimates Viasat's spectrum portfolio could be worth $15 billion, while Oppenheimer believes the company's core business is approaching a free-cash-flow inflection point. Viasat has committed some spectrum to its Equatys venture with Space42, but the company has kept its options open by preserving the possibility of a sale, lease or broader strategic deal.
The Space Trade’s Biggest Shorts Are Still ASTS And SPCE
Before SpaceX went public, investors used listed space companies as proxies for Musk's space bet. Its IPO removed that constraint, allowing investors to buy or bet against SpaceX directly and judge smaller rivals. Current Koyfin data shows that SPCE remains the sector’s biggest bearish target, with 34% of its float sold short. ASTS and BKSY follow at 22%, Sidus Space (SIDU) and Intuitive Machines (LUNR) at 21%.
S3 Partners said last month that only about 22% of ASTS short interest was linked to convertible-bond arbitrage, suggesting that most of the position represented an outright bearish bet. The firm also said that shorts had reduced exposure to both VSAT and RKLB as investors rewarded stronger fundamentals.
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