Retail Traders Pick Their Top Auto Stock For The Long Haul Amid Trump’s Return: It's Not A Legacy Carmaker

With Donald Trump returning to the U.S. presidency, investors are broadly nervous about auto companies transitioning toward an electric future, especially amid the president’s plans to roll back Biden-era green policies, including tax credits for electric vehicles. 

However, retail traders on Stocktwits appear to be betting on EVs despite these challenges.

In a poll asking which automaker investors are most confident in holding long-term over the next decade, 22% of respondents favored General Motors (GM), 16% chose Ford, and 17% picked Honda. 

However, a 45% plurality voted for an “other” automaker, with comments showing a strong bias toward two prominent U.S. EV companies, Tesla Inc. and Rivian Automotive Inc.

Stocktwits auto stocks poll Jan 29 as of 11 am ET

The Big Picture: While U.S. vehicle sales for 2024 saw a 2.2% increase, reportedly driven by better availability and promotional deals, the transition to electric vehicles has been slower than expected. 

Trump’s proposed import tariffs could also raise the cost of new cars, creating headwinds for automakers, especially those dependent on imports from Canada and Mexico.

Now, let’s examine the performance of the top automakers, as ranked by the Stocktwits poll, since November, when Trump won the election.

GM's stock has dropped 5% over the past three months, mainly due to concerns over Trump’s 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. GM’s EV sales surged by 50% in 2024 and 125% in Q4, increasing its market share, but the potential rollback of federal tax credits could make GM’s 2025 EV goals harder to reach.

Ford has experienced a 9% decline since November, with similar tariff concerns (17% of its U.S. sales come from Mexico). Ford’s Q4 U.S. sales were up 8.8% year-over-year, with electrified vehicle sales up 22.3%. However, Barclays analysts have raised concerns about inventory destocking and price normalization, which could weigh on Ford’s earnings in 2025.

Honda's U.S.-listed shares have dropped 8% since November. However, the company’s recent plans to merge with Nissan to create the third-largest auto company globally have bolstered investor sentiment as it prepares to take on Chinese EV competitors.

Tesla and Rivian, however, have bucked the trend. 

Tesla’s stock is up nearly 50% over the past three months, mainly due to Elon Musk’s close ties with Trump and his influential role in shaping policy. Many believe Musk’s influence could benefit Tesla’s efforts, particularly in autonomous driving and AI. 

Retail investors are also upbeat about the company’s other segments, such as energy.

Rivian’s stock is up 17%, buoyed by its recent $6.6 billion federal loan and Amazon backing, with growing interest in its driving tech developed alongside Volkswagen.

Other automakers mentioned in the poll’s comments include Toyota, Nio, and Polestar.

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