Novo Nordisk Targets Over Five New Blockbusters By 2030, But NVO Stock Slides On Growth Concerns

Novo Nordisk’s long-term growth targets failed to ease investor concerns over Eli Lilly’s obesity-drug lead, CagriSema’s comparative performance and upcoming semaglutide patent expirations.

• Novo targets more than five new ‘multi-blockbusters’ by 2030 and over $23 billion in pipeline sales by 2035.
• CagriSema delivered 23% weight loss versus 25.5% for Lilly’s Tirzepatide and failed to show non-inferiority in a Phase 3 trial.
• Semaglutide drives about 75% of Novo’s 2026 sales, leaving the company exposed as key patents expire in major markets from 2030.

Novo Nordisk (NVO) was in the spotlight on Monday after the drugmaker laid out its long-term growth targets but failed to give investors enough concrete near-term catalysts to ease concerns about competition from Eli Lilly (LLY).

U.S.-listed NVO shares were down 5% at the time of writing. The stock has declined in seven of the last 10 sessions.

Novo Targets More Than Five New Blockbusters

At its Capital Markets Day, Novo said it aims to launch more than five “multi-blockbusters” by 2030 spanning obesity, diabetes, liver diseases and blood and endocrine disorders. The pharmaceutical behemoth expects to generate more than DKK 150 billion ($23 billion) in pipeline sales by 2035. The company also expects 2026-2030 revenue growth to align with major pharmaceutical peers.

However, several of Novo’s potential growth drivers remain years from reaching the market, while the company is already losing ground to Lilly in obesity. Zepbound sales are expected to exceed Wegovy sales by more than $7 billion this year, according to LSEG estimates cited by Reuters.

“Investors are selling the shares because they are not seeing concrete news that could drive the stock higher,” Nordnet investment economist Per Hansen said, according to Bloomberg.

Analysts have also called for Novo to expand beyond its core obesity and diabetes businesses.

“They ⁠should work harder in building a third leg ... because in diabetes and obesity, they won't find enough growth opportunities,” Markus Manns, a portfolio manager at Union ​Investment told Reuters.

CagriSema Falls Short Against Lilly’s Tirzepatide

CagriSema, one of Novo’s most important next-generation obesity treatments, has also raised concerns.

In February, the drug produced 23% average weight loss after 84 weeks in a Phase 3 trial, compared with 25.5% for Tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Lilly’s Zepbound. CagriSema failed the study’s primary goal of demonstrating that it was non-inferior to Tirzepatide.

Novo still expects an FDA decision on CagriSema for obesity in the final quarter of this year.

Patent Expiry Pressure

Novo could also be under pressure as patents protecting Semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, begin expiring in major markets in the early 2030s.

Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley downgraded Novo to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’ with a $40 price target, highlighting patent risks. Semaglutide, which drives about 75% of Novo’s 2026 sales, faces patent expirations in major markets over the coming years, opening the door to cheaper competition, the firm added.

Retail Remains Bullish On NVO

Despite the premarket slide, retail sentiment surrounding NVO on Stocktwits remained in the ‘bullish’ zone over the past 24 hours, amid ‘high’ message volumes.

One user noted that the stock is “extremely oversold.”

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Another user said there is “no basis for the drop.”

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However, NVO shares are down more than 17% so far this year, significantly worse than LLY’s 6.7% gains.

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