Nio's Q4 Stumble Draws Price Target Cuts, But Retail Traders See A Rebound Play

Shares of Chinese EV maker Nio, Inc. ended Friday more than 4.4% lower, hitting lows last seen nearly two weeks ago, following disappointing quarterly results that drew some cautionary notes from Wall Street analysts. But retail traders have not given up just yet.

According to The Fly, BofA Securities lowered its price target on Nio to $4.90 from $5 — which still presents an upside of $0.40 from the last close — and kept a 'Neutral' rating on the shares.

BofA analysts noted that Nio's fourth-quarter sales jumped 16% year-over-year and 6% from the prior quarter, and the gross profit margin also improved.

However, the research firm attributed Nio's higher-than-expected operating expenses (OPEX) to sales ratio to increased marketing expenses for new brands and products and service network expansion for Onvo — a sub-brand aimed at the mass market.

The company also reported a 528 million yuan (RMB) non-operating loss from overseas asset revaluation due to currency depreciation, compared to gains in the previous quarter and the year-ago period. 

While volume growth in 2025 remains a positive factor, BofA remains on the sidelines, citing concerns over slower margin expansion and high OPEX.

Citi, meanwhile, lowered its price target on Nio to $8.10 from $8.90 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating. 

The research firm expects Nio's first-quarter (Q1) vehicle margin to decline quarter-over-quarter to 11%-12%, citing seasonal weakness in car sales, sluggish demand for the Nio brand ahead of upgraded model launches in the second quarter (Q2), and lower-than-expected sales of Onvo.

However, Citi anticipates earnings improvements starting in mid-Q2, driven by an aggressive rollout of new models in April and May and margin gains on "better scale effect."

On Stocktwits, sentiment for Nio dipped from a week ago, but still ended on a ‘bullish’ level, accompanied by a 41% jump in message volume.

NIO sentiment and message volume as of March 23. | source: Stocktwits

Several retail traders on the platform became more optimistic after Nio reportedly launched China's biggest virtual battery swap station, with a regulation capacity of 20,000 kilowatts.

These are places where multiple stations are connected and managed as a single, virtual entity to optimize energy consumption and grid stability

One user was hopeful based on the data about China’s EV battery swaps growing at a “healthy rate.”

Nio’s U.S.-listed stock has lost more than 11% in the past 12 months but is up 1.8% this year.

A recent Stocktwits poll reveals that most retail traders believe Nio will close March above $5.50.

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