Mosaic Company said that fertilizer market conditions remained challenging in the fourth quarter, as weaker-than-usual seasonal demand weighed on results.
- Oppenheimer downgraded Mosaic to ‘Perform’ from ‘Outperform’.
- Tight sulfur market conditions are expected to persist into the first half of 2026, continuing to weigh on Mosaic’s outlook, the brokerage firm added.
- Tight credit and increased competition due to an influx of lower-grade phosphate imports from China weighed on demand and margins in Brazil.
Mosaic Company (MOS) shares were trading down 4.5% on Friday after the firm said that fertilizer market conditions remained challenging in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, as weaker-than-usual seasonal demand weighed on results.
In response, Oppenheimer downgraded Mosaic to ‘Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ and removed the firm’s previous $35 price target following the company’s “weak” preliminary Q4 results.
Oppenheimer expects Mosaic to continue making gradual progress on operating rates, but noted there is no clear catalyst to lift fertilizer demand in the current crop year. Tight sulfur market conditions are also expected to persist into the first half of 2026, continuing to weigh on the outlook.
Despite the intraday drop, retail sentiment on Stocktwits remained in the ‘bullish’ zone over the past 24 hours.
Q4 Preliminary Update
In North America, fertilizer demand dropped sharply as growers remained under economic pressure and an early winter shortened the fall application season. Phosphates were hit hardest due to lower affordability than potash, with shipments estimated to be down about 20% from a year ago.
The weak environment weighed on Mosaic’s results, with Q4 phosphate sales of about 1.3 million tonnes and potash sales near 2.2 million tonnes. In response, the company adjusted its phosphate production and shifted volumes to markets showing stronger demand, keeping overall output in line with the prior quarter, though lower sales and rising inventories pressured cash flow.
Conditions in Brazil also worsened, as tighter credit and increased competition, due to an influx of lower-grade phosphate imports from China, weighed on demand and margins. As a result, Mosaic Fertilizantes’ sales fell short of expectations, even as full-year volumes were roughly flat.
Looking ahead, Mosaic sees a more favorable setup in 2026, supported by nutrient replenishment needs, government support programs, tightening phosphate markets, and reduced Chinese exports, all of which could help lift demand and prices over time, it said.
The company is expected to post its Q4 2025 results on February 24.
Over the past year, MOS stock has declined nearly 2%.
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