Investing equally in Burry’s four early picks would have lost about 22%, while the S&P 500 gained nearly 11%.
- Michael Burry marked his Substack’s anniversary month by saying one year is too short to judge investment skill.
- Nvidia, Palantir, Oracle and Micron fell after his bearish positions became public, but his options returns remain unclear.
- Veeva nearly doubled, driving most of the gains across his three software picks.
“The Big Short” investor Michael Burry urged readers to look beyond a single year of returns as his Substack entered its first anniversary month, with his public stock calls revealing steep declines in several early picks and a software winner that nearly doubled.
The investor known for predicting the 2008 housing crash says one year is too short to assess investment skills. “1 year is a useless measure of investment skill. It’s not close to long enough,” Burry said in an anniversary message for Cassandra Unchained. “We should all cut ourselves some slack for what has gone right and wrong over the last year.”
Burry's Four Early Stock Picks Trail The S&P500
Burry’s earliest picks have put his call for patience to the test. At around the time of the newsletter’s launch, he named Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Shift4 Payments (FOUR) and Fannie Mae (FNMA) as long-term holdings.
“These are all 3-5 year holds minimum,” he said in late November last year. Someone who invested $10,000 equally across the four stocks — $2,500 in each — and held them throughout would have about $7,796 left, marking a loss of 22%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 gained about 11%, turning $10,000 into nearly $11,070.
Molina’s gains helped limit the losses, while Lululemon, Shift4 and Fannie Mae fell an average of 43%.
| Stock or benchmark | Price change |
| Lululemon | -40.7% |
| Molina Healthcare | 40.5% |
| Shift4 Payments | -40% |
| Fannie Mae common shares | -47.9% |
| S&P 500 | 10.7% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 8.4% |
Note: Stock performance is measured from when Burry's positions became public, not from when he bought the shares. Actual options returns may differ and cannot be calculated from share-price movements alone.
Burry’s Bets Against AI: Nvidia, Palantir, Oracle, Micron
Burry’s bets against the AI boom targeted Nvidia (NVDA), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Oracle (ORCL) and Micron Technology (MU).
| Stock or ETF | Date Burry’s Position Became Public | Price change |
| Nvidia | 2025-11-03 | -2.30% |
| Palantir | 2025-11-03 | -13.90% |
| Oracle | 2026-01-09 | -39.90% |
| Micron | 2026-07-02 | -14.60% |
| Invesco QQQ Trust | 2026-04-23 | 4.60% |
Scion’s filing last November revealed Nvidia and Palantir puts—options that can gain value when shares fall. The Palantir position’s reported $912.1 million value caused confusion as it represented the underlying shares, rather than his spending. “I spent $9,200,000, not $912,000,000,” Burry clarified.
He later disclosed Oracle puts in January, questioning its costly cloud expansion, and a Micron short in July. All four stocks have fallen since Burry’s positions became public, but that alone does not prove his options made money. For example, his original Palantir contracts needed the stock to fall to $48.16 to break even at expiration in 2027, which is about 73% below Monday’s close. He later changed the positions, leaving their current returns unclear.
His other bearish trades were mixed. In August, he closed losing semiconductor ETF puts, increased QQQ puts and took profits on Tesla and Applied Materials shorts. “Quick sizable short sale gains are gift horses in this market,” he said. Meanwhile, QQQ has risen 4.6% since late April, showing why declines in individual stocks do not necessarily mean Burry’s broader bearish bets paid off.
Veeva Leads Gains In Burry’s Software Picks
Burry saw an opportunity in software even as he bet against the AI boom, buying shares hit by credit-related concerns.
In April, he disclosed purchases of Adobe (ADBE), Autodesk (ADSK) and Veeva Systems (VEEV). “Today I committed to a low normal position in each of ADBE and ADSK,” he said at the time.
| Stock or benchmark | Price change |
| Veeva Systems | 93.8% |
| Autodesk | 13.5% |
| Adobe | 4.7% |
| Equal-weight software basket | 37.3% |
| S&P 500 | 9.5% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 8.5% |
Veeva was the clear winner, nearly doubling and accounting for about 84% of the gain from investing equally in the three stocks. Adobe and Autodesk gained an average of 9.1%, slightly below the S&P 500.
How Burry’s Payments Picks Fared — And Why He Is Still Bullish
Burry’s payments picks delivered mixed results, with PayPal’s gains largely canceled out by Fiserv’s decline.
In April, he disclosed a new PayPal (PYPL) position alongside an existing Fiserv (FISV) holding. Since that update, PayPal has risen 18.6%, while Fiserv has fallen 15.3%. Someone who split their investment equally between the two would have gained about 1.7%, compared with 7.4% for the S&P 500 and 4.8% for the Nasdaq through Monday.
But he sees a fresh catalyst. In his latest update, Burry argued that reported takeover interest in Global Payments (GPN) could highlight the value of other payments companies. Applying similar buyout assumptions, he estimated Fiserv could command $100-$120 per share from a buyer taking control.
“Fiserv is far more profitable, only slightly more costly as an acquisition target, and has better assets, relative to Global Payments,” he said. He maintained a full Fiserv position and still calls PayPal as a “Fat Pitch” in the $50s.
How Burry’s Beaten-Down Stock Picks Have Performed
Burry also bought beaten-down stocks outside tech and payments. MercadoLibre (MELI) and Zoetis (ZTS) have gained about 6% and 7%, respectively, since his May update.
HCA Healthcare (HCA) delivered a stronger rebound. In June, Burry argued that expiring enhanced Obamacare subsidies could hurt weaker rivals more, giving the hospital operator opportunities to buy competitors. “Anything that hurts HCA hurts its competitors more and creates M&A opportunities. It all works out in the end,” he said.
HCA has since risen nearly 25%, compared with a 2% S&P 500 gain and a 2% Nasdaq decline through Monday. Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) went the other way, falling nearly 39% since Burry disclosed adding shares in July. He later switched from shares to long-dated call options.
Burry has said he generally waits for a stock to fall 20% below his purchase price before buying more, though trading volume can prompt an earlier move.
Why Burry Exited GameStop, DraftKings And Flutter
Nevertheless, Burry’s call for patience did not stop him from changing course. He disclosed GameStop (GME) purchases in January, backing Ryan Cohen’s ability to turn its cash into a broader collection of businesses. But GameStop’s proposed eBay acquisition changed his view.
By May, Burry had sold his entire position, saying the potential debt burden conflicted with his original investment case. GameStop shares fell less than 1% between his purchase disclosure and exit report, while the S&P 500 gained about 4%.
His bets on DraftKings (DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) were also short-lived. He bought both in July, expecting regulation to curb competition from prediction markets. In August, he sold DraftKings and more than doubled his Flutter holding, adding shares at an average price in the high $90s. By September, he had sold Flutter too, putting most of the proceeds into Lululemon below $100.
DraftKings fell about 20% between his purchase disclosure and exit report, while Flutter declined 10%.
How Tax Sales And Options Changed Burry’s Holdings
Last month, Burry reshuffled several holdings to claim tax losses and change how he placed his bets. He sold Lululemon at a loss and temporarily replaced it with Deckers Outdoor (DECK). He also sold Fannie Mae common shares and moved the proceeds into Freddie Mac (FMCC).
By then, Lululemon and Fannie had fallen about 49% and 57%, respectively, since late November last year. Both later recovered some ground, while Deckers gained about 6% from the October update through Monday.
Burry later shifted into Fannie and Freddie junior preferred shares, a different class of stock. He also held concentrated bets against the Nasdaq-100 and semiconductor stocks through put options. Meanwhile, he sold call options against his Veeva shares, potentially capping further gains, and replaced his Zoetis and Sprouts shares with long-dated calls.
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