MCD Stock Gets Price Target Cuts From Morgan Stanley, Melius Research – A Look At Some Key Street Action Post Investor Day

McDonald’s NEXT rollout is drawing renewed attention to its long-term growth and investment plans.

• Morgan Stanley cut its price target to $297 from $308 and maintained an ‘Equal Weight’ rating, according to The Fly.
• Melius Research lowered its target to $230 from $250 while keeping its ‘Sell’ rating, TheFly reported.
• McDonald’s plans approximately $8.5 billion in NEXT partnering support through 2036, including about $5 billion through 2030.

McDonald’s (MCD) shares were in focus Monday after Morgan Stanley and Melius Research lowered their price targets following the fast-food giant’s Sept. 23 investor day and NEXT strategy update, according to TheFly.

MCD shares traded about 1% lower at the time of writing Monday.

According to TheFly, Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $297 from $308 while maintaining an ‘Equal Weight’ rating. The firm updated its model to reflect the financial targets and additional details provided during the investor day.

The Fly also reported that Melius Research analyst Jacob Aiken-Phillips lowered his price target to $230 from $250 while maintaining a ‘Sell’ rating.

Analysts Flag Near-Term Uncertainty

Last week, TD Cowen lowered its price target to $270 from $282 while maintaining a ‘Hold’ rating after attending McDonald’s investor day, according to TheFly. The firm said the NEXT strategy is centered on operational simplification, a more focused marketing approach and greater use of digital and ArchIQ capabilities. 

TD Cowen is modeling below-consensus fourth quarter (Q4) and first-half U.S. comparable sales and sees an unclear trajectory for 2027-30 earnings-per-share (EPS) growth, TheFly reported.

Evercore ISI lowered its price target to $300 from $320 while maintaining an ‘Outperform’ rating. According to TheFly, the firm is reducing its 2027-30 EPS estimates by roughly 3%, citing the effects of refranchising, rent relief, and slightly lower same-store sales estimates.

Why McDonald’s Is Focused On Market Share

The analyst actions follow McDonald’s unveiling of its NEXT strategy on Sept. 23, which is designed to drive guest-count growth, market-share gains and restaurant productivity.

CEO Chris Kempczinski said in a CNBC interview on Wednesday, Sept. 23, that McDonald’s expects industry traffic to remain largely flat and elevated inflation to persist, making market-share gains increasingly important to the company’s growth strategy.

Kempczinski also pointed to continued cost pressures, including higher beef prices, and said McDonald’s needs to balance pricing with maintaining a strong value proposition for customers.

What McDonald’s Is Targeting

McDonald’s is targeting 1.5 percentage-point gains in market share in both chicken and beverages by 2030, while maintaining its leadership position in beef.

Under NEXT, the company expects approximately 250 basis points of gross restaurant-level efficiency gains as the strategy is deployed across the U.S. and International Operated Markets. McDonald’s estimates that those improvements could represent roughly $100,000 in annual cash flow benefits for the average U.S. restaurant.

McDonald’s also plans approximately $8.5 billion in total NEXT partnering support through 2036, including about $5 billion through 2030, in the form of rent relief and capital support for franchisees.

Retail sentiment surrounding MCD on Stocktwits remained ‘ Extremely bullish’ over the past 24 hours, amid extremely high message volumes.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<