Analysts warned that a data-heavy macro calendar, weak risk appetite, and lingering technical pressures continue to raise volatility risks for crypto markets.
- Analysts flagged a data-heavy macro week, with rate decisions and U.S. labor reports expected to drive volatility across crypto and risk assets.
- Market commentators warned that Bitcoin’s loss of key technical levels in past cycles has often preceded deeper drawdowns, keeping downside risks in focus.
- Despite a short-term price bounce, Bitcoin saw heavy liquidations dominated by shorts, while retail sentiment remained bearish with elevated chatter levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $79,000 on Tuesday, rebounding from price levels last seen in late 2024 and putting the spotlight back on the $80,000 psychological mark for traders watching near-term momentum. Analysts warn that U.S. economic data and rate expectations could drive sharp moves in crypto and other risk assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) had briefly touched $79,000 before dipping back to $78,469.67, up by 0.7% in the previous day. According to historical records, Bitcoin’s rebound followed a decline back to price levels last seen in November 2024, a zone that previously saw sustained trading activity.
Forbes reported that Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Bitbank, said, “A break below the key $80,000 psychological level could accelerate selling pressure once again.” He added that, “Should Bitcoin decline another leg lower, oversold conditions and perceived value levels may increasingly attract dip-buying interest.”
Bitcoin (BTC), trading at around $78,175.11, up 0.9% in the last 24 hours, saw about $81.62 million in total liquidations. Liquidations rose as price volatility increased near key levels. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around Bitcoin changed from ‘extremely bearish’ to ‘bearish’ territory, with chatter at ‘extremely high’ levels over the past day.
Macro Data, Technical Signals, And Liquidations Shape Bitcoin Outlook
Analysts at Ostium Labs also warned that markets are entering a data-heavy week, with multiple interest-rate decisions and major U.S. economic releases scheduled. These included ISM manufacturing and services data, job openings, ADP employment figures, weekly jobless claims, and the January nonfarm payrolls report.
The report noted that the concentration of Central Bank decisions and labor-market data could increase short-term volatility across currencies and other risk assets as investors reassess growth and interest-rate expectations.
History Points To Volatility Ahead
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently described the current environment as a “crypto winter.” He noted that periods of high fear and consolidation have historically preceded longer-term recoveries.
Market analyst Ali Charts also pointed out that in past cycles, Bitcoin often saw deeper corrections after losing the 100-week simple moving average, a pattern that has historically preceded drawdowns of “45%-58%.”
The broader cross-asset backdrop has continued to weigh on crypto performance. Wintermute said Bitcoin’s drop below $80,000 over the weekend triggered $2.55 billion in liquidations, as a delayed risk-off rotation driven by macro and earnings pressures hit risk assets.
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