Fidelity’s Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer Says Bitcoin Has Bottomed And Should Beat Gold Here On

Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer expects Bitcoin to outperform gold from here, even as he saw gold's fair value near $5,000 and rising.

• Jurrien Timmer said Bitcoin has bottomed, and pointed to its double bottom around 58,000 to 60,000 and its move back above $80,000.
• Timmer said his cycle model had pointed to a peak near $150,000, but Bitcoin topped near $126,000 instead.
• Timmer warned that the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3% is pressuring stocks into a "stealth correction," making the case for diversifying into gold, Bitcoin and commodities.

Bitcoin (BTC) has bottomed and should outperform gold from here, according to Fidelity Investments’ Jurrien Timmer. Timmer stated that Bitcoin ended a mild bear market, and its rise above $80,000 confirmed a double bottom, indicating that the price may have found support.

Timmer, the firm’s director of global macro, made the call during an appearance on The Compound & Friends podcast on Friday. Timmer said “60K is a level that I’m going to buy and it went to 58,” and that is a chart pattern in which a price tests a low twice and holds. He said the price looked right earlier this year, but the timing did not. Bitcoin’s winters have tended to last 9 to 12 months, he said. Traders often read it as a sign that a downtrend is over.

He expects both Bitcoin and gold to rally. He said there’s more room for Bitcoin to run. "Bitcoin is going to go up more," he said.

Cycle Model Missed Peak

His cycle model had pointed to a peak close to $150,000 last year, said Timmer. He said Bitcoin topped out at about $126,000. The model plots time and price on logarithmic scales, compressing large moves to make it easier to compare patterns. Each winter is shorter than the previous one, he said.  “It’s a maturing asset, right? So, it’s going to moon less and it’s going to swoon less,” he said.

Timmer Says Gold Near $5,000: Warns Rising Treasury Yields Could Trigger Stock Correction

After Bitcoin’s peak, speculators moved out of Bitcoin into gold, Timmer said. That took gold to around $5,600, he said. His model of the global money supply indicates gold should not have risen above $4,800, he said. Fair value is about $5,000 and climbing, he added. Bitcoin priced in gold shows a double bottom too, he said.

Timmer’s take comes with a warning on bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.3%, he said. He said rising yields are putting pressure on stocks and creating what he called a stealth correction.

Timmer said gold, Bitcoin and commodities can help diversify portfolios when stocks and bonds fall together. However, he warned that some of these assets could become more closely correlated with equities, limiting their diversification benefits.

Bitcoin’s price was trading around $82,935, flat over the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, accompanied by ‘low’ levels over the past day. 

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