Costco’s membership growth remains important, while overseas expansion and improved digital operations could help boost earnings.

  • Freedom Broker and Truist lowered their Costco price targets after Q4 results, citing valuation and slower membership growth. 
  • Truist noted that recent warehouse expansion has focused more on existing markets than Asia, potentially limiting new memberships. 
  • Raymond James highlighted Costco’s strong international expansion, Executive membership growth, and digital gains. 

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) stock wrapped its best week since May as investors weighed its strong fiscal 2026 finish against concerns over slowing membership growth. Wall Street analysts trimmed price targets but continued to point to warehouse expansion, membership trends, digital gains and merchandise productivity as key growth drivers. 

Costco Wholesale stock edged 0.2% higher in Monday’s premarket after a 3% gain last week.

Warehouse Expansion Shifts Costco’s Membership Mix

Freedom Broker reduced its price target for Costco to $1,010 from $1,030 while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating. The firm described Costco's fiscal-year finish as strong and said the lower target mainly stems from a higher discount rate. Its medium-term business expectations remain unchanged.

Truist also cut its Costco target to $955 from $1,011 and kept a ‘Hold’ rating following the company's fourth-quarter (Q4) results. The firm pointed to a continued moderation in membership additions, although it noted that Costco's recent warehouse expansion has influenced the trend.

According to the analyst, many of the warehouses opened during the past two years have filled gaps in existing markets rather than expanding aggressively into Asia. That matters because Asian locations typically generate more new memberships, even though customers in those markets tend to visit stores less often. Truist said Costco's business remains exceptionally strong, but a renewed pickup in membership growth could be needed to support a higher valuation multiple.

Costco reported Q4 earnings of $6.75 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $6.52, while sales grew 11.2% to $93.9 billion. Comparable sales increased 9.4%. Paid memberships reached 84.1 million, up 3.8%, while Executive memberships grew 9.4%. The U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.3%. 

Raymond James Highlights Costco’s Growth Potential 

Raymond James analyst Bobby Griffin lowered his price target to $1,050 from $1,100 while retaining an ‘Outperform’ rating. Griffin sees Costco as a strong long-term growth company, with several catalysts to increase earnings.

The firm sees support from healthy comparable-store sales, faster international warehouse expansion, greater adoption of Costco's Executive membership tier and gains from digital operations. Improvements in merchandise productivity could also contribute to earnings growth and market-share gains.

COST Stock: Retail View 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the stock remained in ‘extremely bullish’ territory. 

COST stock has gained 7% year-to-date. 

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