Wells Fargo lowers its price target on Carnival but still sees nearly a 60% upside.

  • Wells Fargo lowered Carnival’s price target to $36 from $38 but kept its Overweight rating.
  • The firm cited weaker yield expectations through Q4 2026 and H1 2027. 
  • On Stocktwits, retail sentiment shifted from bullish to neutral.

Carnival Corp. (CCL) stock is heading toward its third consecutive month of losses as investors weigh growing pressure on cruise pricing in the Caribbean. Wells Fargo lowered its price target, reflecting a more cautious near-term outlook, but kept a positive view of Carnival’s business and long-term growth potential. 

Carnival stock edged nearly 1% lower in Tuesday’s premarket and is down over 5% so far this month. 

Wells Fargo Trims Carnival Price Target 

Wells Fargo reduced its price target on Carnival to $36 from $38 while maintaining an ‘Overweight’ rating, still implying a 60% upside to the stock’s last closing price. The firm said the reduction does not reflect a shift in its constructive view of the company or its longer-term prospects.

Wells Fargo has become more cautious about Carnival’s pricing and revenue per passenger. The firm lowered its yield outlook for fiscal fourth quarter (Q4) 2026 and the first half of 2027, citing cheaper pricing pressures, especially in the Caribbean. 

Lower-priced alternatives could make it harder for cruise operators to push pricing and maintain previously expected yield levels. 

Middle East Tensions Send Carnival’s Fuel Costs Higher 

Escalating Middle East tensions created severe energy market volatility, driving fuel costs up by nearly 30% for Carnival Corporation, with fuel prices per metric ton surging compared to the prior year. Because Carnival does not typically hedge its fuel exposure, the company absorbed the full brunt of these spiking commodity prices, pushing gross margin yields down by 3.9% in the second quarter (Q2).

Carnival saw some booking weakness on European routes because of their proximity to the conflict, while its Caribbean and other key regional trips remained relatively strong in Q2. 

What CCL Retail Traders Are Saying 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment shifted to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ the previous day. The stock saw a 371% surge in message volume over the past week. 

A user said, “Jet fuel and diesel come from the same middle-distillate cut of the barrel, the cut the Gulf's light and medium crudes were built to supply, and those barrels are now cut off at Hormuz, the East-West pipeline and Bab el-Mandeb. September CPI could show a jump in fares of 35% or more.”

Another user said, “Instead of working on affordability for the American public Donald Trump spent the entire day on truth social ranting and crying about AI.” 

CCL stock has cratered 26% year-to-date. 

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