Bank of America flagged September 11 CPI as the more decisive signal for the Fed rate path, Bitunix analysts said.
- Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Saturday after a stronger-than-expected August jobs report.
- Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, tripling forecasts, and unemployment stayed at 4.1%.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows dropped 76% to $174.60 million on Friday, from $730 million on Thursday.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $80,000 on Saturday, down more than 1% after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for August rattled the cryptocurrency market.
On Friday, Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, more than triple the 53,000 economists had expected, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Private payrolls were also much stronger than expected, with 127,000 jobs added compared with expectations of around 43,000 to 45,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The BLS also revised up payrolls for June and July by a combined 55,000 jobs.
Jobs Report May Not Set Fed Path
According to a Bitunix analyst, Bank of America (BofA) said before Friday’s report that the jobs data alone may not be enough to significantly move current rate-hike pricing unless payroll growth is substantially below forecasts.
But the bank pointed to the September 11 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report as a more definitive signal for the Fed's rate path, arguing that if inflation remained sticky even as the labor market became softer, higher rates could keep funding costs and pressure risk-asset valuations, including crypto.
Analysts also said that the yen carry trade offered a separate channel for transmitting Japanese monetary policy shocks to the crypto markets, beyond U.S. data.
On Substack, popular trader Garrett Jin said that Bitcoin came under pressure and was 'rejected brutally' at $82,500. According to the trader, if Bitcoin’s price rises, more people who bought at higher prices could use it as an opportunity to sell, in turn creating additional selling pressure. According to him, more traders are betting that Bitcoin’s price will fall, making the market likely vulnerable to a short squeeze.
ETF Flows Reverse
On Thursday, before the jobs report was announced, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $730.9 million in inflows, the highest since February. However, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Friday totaled $174.60 million, down about 76% from Thursday’s number, according to SoSoValue data.
Thursday's inflow coincided with Bitcoin rallying to $81,000 on the back of comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said he was open to keeping rates steady if inflation continued to ease.
This has put Bitcoin at a crucial level. With Bitcoin approaching crucial resistance at $83,000, investors are watching to see whether ETF inflows continue to rise or fall further.
Bitcoin’s price was in the red in the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC moved to the ‘neutral’ zone from the ’ bullish’ zone, as chatter around it stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.
Broader Market Pause
The broader market also showed signs of a similar pause outside of Bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH) was also trading in the red, with total ETH spot ETF falling to $26.46 million on Friday, from $141.39 million on Thursday, marking a drop of roughly 81%, according to SoSoValue data.
Ethereum’s price was also down over 2% during the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around ETH remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, as chatter around it stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.
With the markets having digested the jobs report, the next scheduled catalysts likely to affect the crypto market's direction into mid-September are the September 11 CPI release and the subsequent Fed rate decision.
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