Mahayuti sweeps Maharashtra, hands MVA massive humiliation: What worked for BJP-led alliance? Key takeaways

Maharashtra was painted in vibrant saffron on Saturday as the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance emerged victorious with a landslide win, overshadowing the struggling MVA. As votes were counted for the assembly elections in both states, celebrations erupted within the BJP. The party was on track to secure 125 of the 149 seats it contested in Maharashtra. With the support of its allies, Shiv Sena and NCP, the Mahayuti alliance was projected to win 219 of the 288 seats, leaving the Congress-Shiv Sena(UBT)-NCP(SP) coalition with just 51 seats.

“I thank everybody for this victory. We have such a big victory because of the work Mahayuti did. Very grateful,” Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde told reporters.

Also read: 'Ek hai toh safe hai': Devendra Fadnavis reiterates PM Modi's call after Mahayuti's big win in Maharashtra

His son, Shiv Sena MP Shrikant Shinde, stated that the mandate reflects who is truly advancing Balasaheb Thackeray's ideals, highlighting the fractured legacy of the Shiv Sena founder. He specifically pointed to the division within the party, with Uddhav Thackeray now leading Shiv Sena (UBT).

Voters in the politically crucial state of Maharashtra, which sends 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha and had given the MVA a decisive 30 seats just five months ago, clearly chose to defy the outcome of that parliamentary victory.

This result is a significant boost for the BJP, which recently secured an unprecedented hat-trick in Haryana and is looking to recover from setbacks in the general elections, where it won just 240 seats.

The Maharashtra verdict, which places the BJP at the forefront of the Mahayuti alliance, paves the way for a potential shift in power with Devendra Fadnavis returning as chief minister. However, it also calls for sober reflection within the Congress and Maratha leader Sharad Pawar’s camp.

The final voter turnout in the polls held on November 20 was 66.05%, marking an increase from 61.1% in 2019.

Within the Mahayuti alliance, the BJP contested 149 seats, Shiv Sena fielded candidates in 81 constituencies, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP contested 59 seats.

In the MVA coalition, the Congress fielded candidates in 101 seats, Shiv Sena (UBT) contested 95 seats, and NCP (SP) put up candidates in 86 constituencies.

What worked for BJP-led Mahayuti alliance?

1. Unified coalition strategy: One of the standout factors behind Mahayuti’s success was its unified leadership strategy. Eknath Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis, and Ajit Pawar formed a cohesive front, minimizing internal disputes and presenting a united vision. Despite the alliance being large and comprising multiple factions, the BJP successfully navigated seat distribution, ensuring that it maximized its chances across all constituencies.

2. Effective welfare and governance initiatives: The Mahayuti effectively communicated its governance achievements, particularly its welfare schemes aimed at addressing voter concerns. Notable initiatives like the Mukhya Mantri Ladki Bahin Yojana, farm loan waivers, and infrastructure development projects resonated with the electorate, particularly women and farmers.

The BJP-led Mahayuti introduced its "Ladki Bahin" scheme, offering Rs 1,500 in cash transfers to women. In response, the MVA promised Rs 3,000 per woman, which was eventually matched by Mahayuti at Rs 2,100. Both alliances made similar commitments for farmers, youth, and senior citizens, aiming to address economic distress in rural regions. Following the win, Shinde referred to the Ladki Bahin Yojana, which provides Rs 1,500 to eligible women, as a "major game changer" for the state elections.

In addition to these welfare promises, infrastructure development and industrial investment emerged as key issues. The parties vied for support by presenting themselves as the coalition best equipped to drive Maharashtra's growth and economic prosperity.

3. OBC consolidation: A major factor behind the Mahayuti alliance's success was its strategic consolidation of Other Backward Class (OBC) votes. The BJP, as a key player in the alliance, has long focused on securing support from non-Maratha communities, particularly OBCs. This approach traces back to the 1990s with the BJP’s MADHAV formula, which united communities like the Mali, Dhangar, and Vanjari to challenge Maratha dominance, later aligning with Congress for political leverage. 

This consolidation strategy has proven effective not just in Maharashtra, but also in states like Haryana, where the BJP used a similar approach to overcome anti-incumbency and secure power. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s messaging, especially the slogan “ek hain to safe hain” (if united, we are safe), resonated with OBC voters who were concerned about the potential dilution of their reservations if Marathas were included in their category. However, balancing the interests of the Maratha and OBC communities remains a delicate task for the Mahayuti, as tensions between the two groups continue to pose a challenge for the alliance.

4. Targeted Campaigning: The Mahayuti alliance employed a targeted campaigning strategy, ensuring strong voter outreach. The BJP and its partners focused on micro-level voter mobilization, with booth-level management ensuring a higher voter turnout. Moreover, the alliance made significant strides in reaching out to key demographics, including women, farmers, and urban middle-class voters, which proved essential in securing their votes. The BJP’s dominant presence on social media also played a crucial role in amplifying its message and solidifying its narrative among the masses.

5. Fragmented Opposition: The disarray within the opposition, particularly the MVA, worked to the Mahayuti’s advantage. The MVA failed to present a clear, unified vision or a compelling CM candidate. The ongoing internal strife within the Shiv Sena and the NCP further weakened their position. The Shiv Sena (UBT) faction, led by Uddhav Thackeray, lost ground after the split in the party, allowing the BJP and Shinde’s faction to consolidate votes, particularly in traditional Shiv Sena strongholds.

6. Regional Dominance: The Mahayuti maintained strongholds in key regions, particularly in the Konkan belt, Mumbai, and Western Maharashtra. In Mumbai, a traditional Shiv Sena stronghold, the Mahayuti was able to hold its ground, aided by the support of Shiv Sena (Shinde faction). Additionally, Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction helped the alliance make substantial inroads into Western Maharashtra’s sugar belt, which has historically been an NCP bastion.

The Mahayuti also saw a resurgence in Vidarbha, a region that had traditionally been a BJP stronghold. In Vidarbha, the Mahayuti alliance secured 47.6% of the vote share in the 2024 Assembly elections, marking a 5.9 percentage point increase from its performance in the Lok Sabha elections. In contrast, the MVA alliance's vote share in the region dropped to 38.9%, a decline of 6.6 percentage points compared to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

In rural areas, the Mahayuti alliance secured 48.7% of the vote share in the 2024 Assembly elections, marking a 9.2 percentage point increase from its performance in the Lok Sabha polls. On the other hand, the MVA alliance's vote share in these areas fell to 35.6%, more than 10 percentage points lower than its showing in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Also read: BJP-led Mahayuti 'triumphs' in Maharashtra: Will Devendra Fadnavis be next CM? Revisiting his political career

What caused the MVA's dismal performance?

1. Disjointed narrative and weak campaign messaging: One of the key reasons behind the MVA’s poor performance was its inability to present a unified campaign message. The alliance, comprising the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, failed to focus on a single issue or a clear vision, with each ally emphasizing different issues. This fragmented approach alienated voters and gave the Mahayuti a clear edge.

2. Failure to capitalize on Maharashtra Pride: The MVA failed to effectively tap into the strong regional pride of Maharashtra. The sentiment of Maharashtra-ki-izzat (respect for Maharashtra) was largely ignored, and the alliance failed to present a vision that resonated with the state’s cultural and political identity.

3. Weak manifesto and lack of distinct vision: The MVA’s manifesto, which mirrored many of Mahayuti’s policies, lacked the clarity and distinctiveness needed to differentiate it from the ruling alliance. The MVA struggled to offer a fresh perspective, with its promises largely overlapping with those of the Mahayuti, making it difficult for voters to identify a compelling reason to vote for the opposition.

4. Neglect of Agrarian issues: While the MVA acknowledged agrarian distress, especially among soybean, cotton, and onion farmers, its response was inadequate. The party’s failure to address these issues in a meaningful way resulted in rural discontent, which ultimately benefitted the Mahayuti’s farm loan waivers and other farmer-friendly initiatives.

5. Impact of welfare scheme: The Mahayuti’s Ladki Bahin Yojana, offering direct cash transfers to women, significantly impacted female voters. While the MVA countered with a higher cash transfer offer, it was too late to overcome the momentum built by the BJP-led alliance. The focus on women’s welfare helped solidify the Mahayuti’s appeal among a crucial demographic.

6. Ineffective response to BJP's campaign blunders: The MVA failed to capitalize on the BJP’s campaign blunders, including accusations of fake advertisements and missteps. Congress’s lackluster response to these issues left the opposition with no counter-narrative, further weakening their position.

7. Fragmented social coalition: The MVA’s social coalition, which included Dalits, Adivasis, Muslims, and Kunbis, was fragmented during this election. The rise of smaller parties and rebel candidates divided these traditional vote banks, which had previously been key to the MVA’s success.

8. Leadership and strategic failures: The MVA’s leadership, especially Uddhav Thackeray’s defensive campaign strategy, failed to inspire confidence. Public sympathy for Thackeray eroded as his campaign lacked aggression and failed to present a solid alternative to the BJP-led alliance. Similarly, Sharad Pawar’s NCP also suffered from a leadership vacuum, as his party couldn’t consolidate the support base it traditionally enjoyed.

The Mahayuti alliance’s success can be attributed to a combination of strategic seat distribution, effective welfare schemes, and cohesive leadership, all of which resonated with voters across Maharashtra. On the other hand, the MVA’s internal disarray, lack of clear messaging, and failure to address key voter concerns led to its poor performance. Moving forward, the BJP-led Mahayuti will look to consolidate its power in Maharashtra, while the MVA will need to undergo significant introspection and reorganization to present a stronger challenge in future elections.