India-Pakistan conflict escalated with missile exchanges and retaliatory strikes. US-brokered ceasefire efforts faced challenges with China's discontent over exclusion from mediation, leading to brief ceasefire violations before tension eased.
In the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack, India and Pakistan plunged into their most dangerous military escalation since the Kargil War—an intense standoff marked by missile strikes, air raids, and ceasefire violations. The two countries engaged in a series of military confrontations that brought the nuclear-armed neighbors perilously close to full-scale war.
The spark: A deadly attack in Pahalgam
The crisis ignited on April 22, when a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam resulted in 26 civilian deaths. India attributed the attack to Pakistan-based militants, leading to heightened tensions and a series of retaliatory measures. India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, expelled Pakistani diplomats, and imposed travel bans on Pakistani nationals as it took several other strict measures.
India launches Operation Sindoor
In the early hours of May 7, India initiated Operation Sindoor, a swift and coordinated military campaign targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The operation was launched in retaliation for the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, where militants killed 26 civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir.
From around 1:05 AM to 1:30 AM, Indian forces executed 24 precision missile strikes on nine identified terror camps, resulting in the elimination of over 80 terrorists. The strikes were carried out using advanced weaponry, including BrahMos cruise missiles, SCALP missiles, and AASM Hammer bombs, deployed by Rafale fighter jets and supported by SkyStriker loitering munitions.
Key targets included facilities linked to Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba in areas such as Bahawalpur and Muridke, which were believed to be hubs for terrorist operations. The Indian government emphasized that the operation was a focused counter-terrorism effort, deliberately avoiding Pakistani military installations.
The name ‘Sindoor’ was chosen symbolically, referencing the traditional red mark worn by married Hindu women, signifying the loss experienced by the widows of the Pahalgam attack victims. This operation marked a significant escalation in India-Pakistan tensions, showcasing India's resolve to counter cross-border terrorism with decisive military action.
Escalation: Missile strikes and alleged nuclear tests
The situation escalated dramatically on May 9 when Pakistan reportedly fired a Fatah-II ballistic missile towards Delhi, which was intercepted by India's Barak missile defense system over Sirsa, Haryana. In response, India launched precision strikes on 11 strategic Pakistani airbases, including Nur Khan near Rawalpindi and Sargodha, a key component of Pakistan's nuclear command infrastructure.
Amidst these hostilities, Pakistan allegedly conducted an underground test of a tactical nuclear weapon. While unverified, seismic activity in the region and subsequent Indian military actions lent credence to the claim.
Diplomatic interventions and ceasefire attempts
As the conflict intensified, Pakistan sought US mediation. The United States, under President Donald Trump, facilitated a ceasefire agreement, with India stipulating several conditions:
- An IMF bailout for Pakistan would be contingent on its adherence to peaceful conduct.
- The Indus Waters Treaty would remain suspended, with India controlling water flow based on Pakistan's behavior.
- Any act of terror would be considered a declaration of war.
Reports suggest additional undisclosed conditions, including the incarceration of terror masterminds.
Ceasefire violations and regional dynamics
Following the ceasefire announcement, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif released a video statement praising international mediators, notably the US. However, the video appeared heavily edited, and Sharif seemed uneasy, raising questions about internal consensus.
China, feeling sidelined in the mediation process, expressed dissatisfaction over its exclusion and the US receiving primary credit. Subsequently, ceasefire violations occurred within 90 minutes of the announcement, with both nations accusing each other of breaches.
India's National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, reportedly communicated with his Chinese counterpart, warning that further violations could lead to full-scale war. The ceasefire violations subsided shortly thereafter.
Current status and outlook
As of May 12, the situation remains tense but stable. Both nations have resumed diplomatic engagements, and international actors continue to advocate for lasting peace. The Indus Waters Treaty remains suspended, and the region remains on high alert.
The recent standoff underscores the fragility of peace in South Asia and the complexities of international diplomacy in resolving long-standing conflicts.