Gujarat Election Results 2022: 3 key takeaways from the mandate

The mandate delivered by the people of Gujarat has taken pollsters and politicians by surprise. Going far beyong the exit poll predictions, the Bharatiya Janata Party is headed for a landslide victory in the elections to the 182 member Gujarat Assembly. The elections have thrown up three visible takeaways. Let's take a look 

1) 'Modi Wave' is intact

The BJP is heading for a mammoth victory in Gujarat and in the process, retaining power for the seventh straight time in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state. 

In vote-count trends, the BJP has surged ahead in over 150 seats. If the leads translate into wins, the tally is way more than the highest-ever mark of 127 seats that the party won under the leadership of then-Chief Minister Narendra Modi in 2002.

As per the latest trends, the BJP has gained over 50 seats compared to its 2017 tally of 99. Such has been BJP's performance in the elections that even in Morbi, where a bridge collapse ahead of the elections claimed over 100 lives, the party has performed well. 

The much-touted anti-incumbency factor of 27 years of governance has fallen flat as BJP secured over 53 per cent of the votes in the elections. To note, in the 2017 assembly elections in Gujarat, the BJP had a vote share of 49.05 per cent. 

The Modi Factor is clearly evident in Gujarat. That's considering the manner in which the people have voted overwhelmingly for the party despite the Opposition raking up issues like inflation, and unemployment and offering freebies like free or cheap electricity. The election mandate in Gujarat will lay the foundation stone for the BJP's 2024 Lok Sabha election campaign.

2) The Decline of Congress 

The Congress has been relegated to a distant second, with leads barely around 20 seats. The Congress, going by the trends, has shed nearly 60 seats, taking into account that the party had 77 seats in the 2017 elections.

The lack of decisive leadership and a sound strategy is being viewed as the biggest reasons for this rout of sorts for the Grand Old Party. The Gujarat mandate poses serious question marks about the impact that Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra is seeking to achieve. 

Sample this. After the 2017 assembly elections, the Congress party had a vote share of 41.44 per cent. Today, that vote share has dwindled to around 26.6 per cent. The party would need to do some serious soul-searching if it really wants to make an impact in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

3) Rise of the AAP

The growth that the Aam Aadmi Party has achieved politically in the last 10 years has been phenomenal. The AAP made its presence felt in Gujarat, eating into Congress votes and gaining lead in around 8 seats.

AAP leader Manish Sisodia: "We are becoming a national party today, thanks to the votes of the people of Gujarat. For the first time, the politics of education and health is making an identity in national politics."

'Even if we get 15% vote share in Gujarat, it will be a big deal,' AAP MP Sanjay Singh was quoted as saying on a television channel. Till the last count, AAP had secured 12.8 per cent of the votes.

• Gujarat Election 2022