Asianet News survey predicts BJP's return to power in Gujarat; AAP to eat into Congress vote share
If the Gujarat election is to be held now, BJP is projected to return to power in the 182-member assembly with 133 to 143 seats, while the Congress and AAP could secure around 28 to 37 and 5 to 14 seats, respectively.
FollowThe forthcoming election in Gujarat could be historic in more ways than one. A pre-poll survey commissioned by Asianet News Network and conducted by Cfore has predicted the Bharatiya Janata Party's victory with a thumping majority in the upcoming state election, due later this year, for a record seventh time with 48 per cent vote share.
The survey, which took the opinion of 1,82,557 voters across 182 assembly constituencies using a systematic sampling methodology, saw the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) eating into Congress' vote share, adding more worries for them. The pre-poll survey states Congress and AAP are likely to get 31 and 16 per cent votes, respectively.
If the Gujarat election is to be held now, BJP is projected to return to power in the 182-member assembly with 133 to 143 seats, while the Congress and AAP could secure around 28 to 37 and 5 to 14 seats, respectively.
A deep dive into the survey data has revealed the following key highlights:
1. In the Gujarat Election 2022, Congress' vote share is likely to fall by 10 per cent, while that of the BJP could fall by one per cent and others by five per cent. The pre-poll survey reveals that AAP has an advantage, and its vote share could go up by 16 per cent. One of the critical reasons for the decline of the Grand Old Party's vote share is the lack of solid leadership, the migration of influential Congress leaders to BJP and demotivated party organisation at the state level, reveals the pre-poll survey. Political observers believe that Rahul Gandhi's 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' seems to have little impact on voters in the state, though it is yet to reach there. Although the yatra may have created a buzz in the southern state, it has not created a ripple effect on the minds of voters in Gujarat and is yet to help them gain any confidence in the party.
2. Like Delhi and Punjab, AAP is also becoming an alternative to Gujarat's Congress. According to the pre-poll survey, AAP is attracting more Congress voters. Sixty-six per cent of AAP voters had voted for Congress in the 2017 assembly elections, while only 21 per cent had voted for BJP. As a result of this decline of Congress and split in opposition votes, BJP is being benefitted.
3. As per the Asianet News-Cfore pre-poll survey, BJP voters in Gujarat are voting for the party primarily because of the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the development work done by his government in the state. Thirty-four per cent of the respondents rated the BJP government's performance in the state as 'Good', while 9 per cent of people rated it as 'Excellent'.
4. According to the survey, 46 per cent of the respondents were satisfied with Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel's performance in terms of overall governance. 27 per cent rated him good, while nine per cent rated the BJP leader's performance as excellent. 34 per cent of those surveyed believe that Patel should return as Gujarat's Chief Minister for a second term.
5. The Asianet News-Cfore pre-poll survey has also revealed dissatisfaction against the BJP among some sections of society, especially lower-income groups, primarily because of rising prices of petrol, diesel, gas and other essential commodities. High level of unemployment is also another primary concern among voters. The dissatisfaction is high among Dalits, tribals, Thakores and Muslims.
6. However, many also don't trust Congress to address their concerns. Many voters, especially in Saurashtra and Surat region, are attracted to AAP for freebies like free electricity (up to 300 units), monthly allowance of Rs 3000 for unemployed youth, etc. However, many are also convinced that AAP won't form the government in the state and that electing an AAP MLA in their constituency will not be of any use, and they won't be able to implement the promises made.
7. Many voters are convinced that electing a BJP MLA will ensure the continuation of development work in their constituency and Gujarat. 49 per cent of the voters revealed that the government's development work is one of the primary reasons to vote for the BJP again. 32 per cent would vote for the BJP because of PM Modi's reputation and image.Â
8. Most voters in Gujarat have only two major demands from the BJP government - create jobs and reduce the cost of essential commodities. Expectations of Businesses/traders are: Drastic Reduction of GST rates and Reduction of interest rates on loans. Expectations of lower economic strata are: Free electricity up to 300 units and Improve the quality of education in government schools. Expectations of farmers are: Waiver of loans and Electricity supply of at least 12 hours a day to irrigate their farms.
9. As far as Congress is concerned, 57 per cent of voters stated that the only reason they would vote for the Grand Old Party is that they are not happy with BJP's performance in Gujarat. Only 12 per cent believe freebies and pre-poll promises made by Congress could be a reason for people to cast their vote for them, while only 7 per cent feel the image and reputation of Rahul Gandhi and other leaders could be a reason to vote for the Congress.
10. As far as AAP is concerned, 43 per cent of voters believe that the single most reason to vote for the Arvind Kejriwal-led party is the freebies and pre-poll promises made while they campaigned in Gujarat. 27 per cent feel that AAP could get votes from those who are not happy with BJP's show in the states, while 17 per cent believe that Kejriwal's reputation and image could be another reason for the party to garner votes.
Also read:Â Here's what EC said when questioned on not announcing Gujarat election dates
In the 2017 Gujarat election, the BJP had won 99 seats, Congress 77, Independents 3, BTP 2, and NCP 1.
