​Above-normal monsoon in India this year, IMD predicts 105% rainfall​

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Rain Alert In Bihar

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India is poised to receive above-average rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon season, with total precipitation forecast at 105% of the long-term average, according to M. Ravichandran, Secretary at the Ministry of Earth Sciences. His comments, reported by Reuters, align with the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) preliminary assessment of a favourable monsoon outlook for most of the country.

The IMD defines “normal” rainfall as between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average of 87 cm (about 35 inches). Any value above this range is classified as “above normal.” At 105%, the current forecast signals a strong and beneficial monsoon season, particularly for agriculture and water resource management.

Most regions across India are expected to benefit from this positive monsoon outlook. However, certain areas — including Ladakh, the northeastern states, and Tamil Nadu — may receive below-normal rainfall, the IMD cautioned.

This year’s forecast is supported by neutral conditions across key climate indicators, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Both systems are currently in a neutral phase — a favourable scenario that supports robust monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent.

El Niño events, characterised by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, are known to suppress Indian monsoons. In contrast, a neutral or positive IOD, marked by warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean, typically enhances rainfall over India.

Another encouraging sign is the reduced snow cover across Eurasia and the Himalayas. Historically, lower snow accumulation in these regions has been linked to stronger monsoon performance.

The southwest monsoon typically arrives in Kerala around June 1 and begins its withdrawal by mid-September. It accounts for nearly 70% of India's annual rainfall and is vital for irrigation, drinking water supply, and hydropower generation.

A stronger monsoon this year could help boost rural incomes, improve crop yields, and offer relief from food inflation — particularly after years of climate-linked volatility. It may also support India’s broader economic recovery, especially in agriculture-dependent regions.

The IMD is expected to release its first-stage detailed monsoon forecast soon, which will offer a clearer picture of regional rainfall distribution and trends, including the potential influence of future El Niño or La Niña developments.