A weak start to India's southwest monsoon has hit kharif sowing, with a 38% rainfall deficit. Sowing of pulses and cotton has declined sharply, raising concerns over food prices and rural economic activity despite sufficient reservoir levels.
A comparatively weak start of monsoon in the southwest of India has signalled a negative impact on the agricultural activity with a significant fall in kharif sowing on a year-on-year basis, according to a research report by 360 ONE Capital Research. Even as sufficient reservoir levels are expected to provide a safe buffer for irrigation, the firm stressed the need for close monitoring given the current pattern of monsoon. It added that a prolonged rainfall deficit may increase pressure on food prices and rural economic activity, but recovery could still support crop prospects.
Widespread Rainfall Deficit
India's southwest monsoon has begun the 2026 season on a weak note, with rainfall remaining significantly below normal across large parts of the country, 360 ONE Capital Research said.
According to the report, cumulative rainfall as of June 17 stood at 46.2 mm, compared with the normal level of 74.3 mm, representing a deficit of 38 per cent. Weekly rainfall for the period ending June 17 was 48 per cent below the long-period average.
The report highlights that 22 of India's 36 meteorological subdivisions have received deficient rainfall so far this season. At the district level, nearly 66 per cent of the country has experienced scanty or deficient rainfall, underscoring the broad-based nature of the shortfall. Central India has been particularly affected, recording a rainfall deficit of 62 per cent, while eastern India has seen rainfall 44 per cent below normal.
Impact on Agricultural Activity
The delayed progress of the monsoon has also begun to affect agricultural activity. "As of June 12, total kharif sowing was reported at 84.6 lakh hectares, down 3.9 per cent from the corresponding period last year. Pulses and cotton have witnessed the sharpest declines, with sowing areas contracting by 43.2 per cent and 28 per cent respectively," according to the report. Rice sowing, however, has shown resilience with a year-on-year increase of 28.4 per cent, albeit from a low base.
Sufficient Reservoir Levels a Positive
Despite weak momentum rainfall, sufficient reservoir levels remains a positive. 360 ONE Capital notes that live reservoir storage as of June 11 was equivalent to 28.3 per cent of total capacity, around 16 per cent above the 10-year average. This provides an important buffer for irrigation needs should rainfall remain uneven in the near term.
Future Outlook and Monitoring
According to 360 ONE Capital Research, the current monsoon pattern warrants close monitoring, particularly given its implications for agricultural output, rural incomes, and food inflation. While the season has started significantly below normal, the ultimate impact will depend on rainfall distribution during the critical July-August period, which typically accounts for the bulk of India's seasonal precipitation. A recovery in rainfall could still support crop prospects, while a prolonged deficit may increase pressure on food prices and rural economic activity.
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