India's FMCG sector is set for healthy revenue growth in Q1/FY27, driven by premiumisation, price hikes, and strong performance in modern trade and quick commerce, despite inflationary pressures, according to an Anand Rathi report.
India's fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is expected to maintain healthy revenue growth in the first quarter of FY27 despite inflationary pressures, aided by premiumisation, selective price hikes, stronger performance in modern trade and quick commerce, according to an Anand Rathi report.
The brokerage said sectoral growth remains resilient, with improved pricing power, favourable seasonal demand, innovation and GST rate cuts in select categories supporting consumption. It also expects lower crude oil and crude derivative prices to improve margins in the coming quarters. "We hosted/interacted with multiple dealers/distributors/experts from Consumer sector (FMCG/Paints/AlcoBev), who suggested healthy sectoral revenue growth in Q1/FY27," the report said.
Key Growth Drivers and Market Dynamics
The report expects, the double-digit revenue growth witnessed over the past two quarters to sustain or improve during Q1 and the first half of FY27, with pricing actions offsetting pockets of demand weakness in general trade. It noted that while rural demand has moderated in some categories, urban consumption has remained relatively resilient. Beverages, summer-centric products, premium offerings and innovation-led portfolios continued to outperform, whereas food categories such as tea, biscuits and confectionery witnessed some slowdown on a high base.
Impact of Inflation and Consumer Behavior
According to the report, inflation driven by higher crude-linked commodity costs has resulted in widespread price increases through MRP hikes and grammage reductions. This has prompted consumers to shift towards smaller packs and local brands, making growth largely pricing-led rather than volume-driven. "Pricing-led growth is expected to continue until emergence of meaningful volume recovery," the report noted, adding that rural recovery and the progress of the monsoon remain key monitorables for the sector.
Shift in Distribution Channels
The report also highlighted the continued structural shift towards alternate distribution channels. Quick commerce is rapidly expanding its presence in urban markets, while modern trade continues to record robust growth. However, the report said general trade is expected to remain the dominant distribution channel because of its extensive rural reach.
Performance in Other Consumer Sectors
Beyond FMCG, paints and alcoholic beverages also reported healthy momentum. Paint demand remained resilient despite cumulative industry price hikes of around 15-16 per cent, driven by strong repainting demand and an extended summer season. In alcoholic beverages, premiumisation continued to support value growth even as overall volumes remained subdued.
Investment Outlook and Valuations
On the outlook, Anand Rathi believes recent corrections in FMCG stocks have created attractive valuations and expects around 10 per cent revenue CAGR and nearly 14 per cent earnings CAGR across its consumer coverage universe during FY26-28. "We continue to believe the valuation of several FMCG players are attractive given improved growth prospects in FY27," the report said. (ANI)
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