Indian banks maintained stable asset quality in the March quarter despite Gulf war concerns. Brokerage firm Systematix warns the real impact may come later but holds a positive outlook on the sector, citing support from government schemes.
During the March quarter, Indian banks managed to keep asset quality largely stable, shrugging off worries faced due to the ongoing Gulf war. Brokerage firm Systematix warned that the true impact of the West Asia conflict was likely to surface only in the second half of the financial year 2026-27. Despite this, the brokerage maintained a constructive outlook on the sector, citing buffers from government schemes like CGSMFI 2.0 and ECLGS 5.0.
Impact on Margins and Yields
"The repo rate cut of 25 basis points in December weighed on yields in the March quarter, with the full impact flowing through to the Yield on Advances (YoA)," Systematix noted. For SBIN, AXIS Bank and Indian Bank, the sequential decline in Yield on Advances was steeper than peers. Although some benefit came from the downward repricing of deposits, it was limited for a few banks, resulting in a sequential contraction in Net Interest Margins (NIMs) for SBIN, Union Bank, Indian Bank and AXIS Bank.
Large private banks fared better. ICICIBank and HDFC Bank managed to keep NIMs largely stable with a slight upward bias, improving by 2 bps and 3 bps QoQ, respectively. In contrast, PSBs faced sharper compression, with SBIN's NIM falling 17 bps QoQ to 2.81 per cent and Union Bank's down 12 bps to 2.64 per cent, as their higher share of EBLR and T-bill-linked loans bore the brunt of the rate cut.
Federal Bank and Bank of Baroda reported improved NIMs, but Systematix noted these were largely driven by one-offs such as interest on income tax refunds and higher recoveries from written-off accounts. Kotak Mahindra Bank's 13 bps expansion to 4.67 per cent was aided by day-count benefits, though normalised NIM was flat at 4.54 per cent.
Asset Quality and Slippage Trends
Asset quality remained broadly in check. Most coverage banks reported a net slippage ratio below 80 bps, with the exception of IndusInd Bank. Slippages increased marginally for seven of the 12 banks, while five saw a decline. IndusInd led the improvement with an 85 bps QoQ drop to 2.2 per cent as stress in the microfinance segment eased, followed by Kotak Mahindra and AXIS Bank. Among PSBs, SBIN continued to report a low 0.5 per cent slippage ratio, while Bank of India and Bank of Maharashtra saw modest upticks.
Credit Costs and Provisions
Credit costs were mixed as banks created buffer provisions amid geopolitical uncertainty. ICICIBank posted the lowest credit cost at 0.03 per cent, supported by strong corporate recoveries, while AXIS Bank and Federal Bank raised one-time prudent provisions of ₹20.01bn and ₹4.56bn, respectively. Bank of Baroda and Union Bank also made additional provisions for floating and standard assets.
Advances and Deposit Growth
Advances growth held up, with the coverage universe expanding 5.2 per cent QoQ and 14.9 per cent YoY. Bank of Maharashtra led with 6.9 per cent QoQ growth, while AXIS Bank was the fastest among large private banks at 6.4 per cent QoQ. Deposit growth outpaced advances at 6.1 per cent QoQ, helped by 4Q seasonality. HDFC Bank recorded the strongest sequential deposit growth at 8.6 per cent QoQ.
Capital Adequacy and ECL Framework Transition
On capital, banks guided that they were confident of managing the transition to the new Expected Credit Loss (ECL) framework notified on 27 April, estimating a 0.7 per cent to 2.5 per cent impact on capital adequacy.
Systematix concluded that while upside risks to asset quality persisted, the overall sector outlook remained positive. (ANI)
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