India can become a $20 trillion economy by 2036 with sustained reforms, says an Equirus report. This ambitious goal requires 18% nominal dollar growth, mirroring China's past success, through a comprehensive 20-step reform agenda.
India can achieve a $20 trillion economy by 2036 if it pursues sustained reforms across infrastructure, capital markets, human capital, services and urban governance, according to an Equirus research report.
India would need to expand its economy roughly 5.5 times from its current base of about $3.7 trillion, requiring sustained nominal growth of around 18 per cent in dollar terms. While ambitious, the report points to China as evidence that such a trajectory is possible. "China did about 18% for eleven straight years from a comparable ~$1.7tn base," the report said, arguing that India too can aspire to a similar growth path with the right reforms and sustained execution.
The 20-Step Reform Agenda
The report has proposed a 20-step reform agenda built around five pillars -- the real economy, capital markets, human capital, the services engine, and liveability and governance. Among the key measures are bringing fuel under GST, ensuring states fully utilise their budgeted capital expenditure, and using public assets to mobilise private capital. Equirus estimates that closing the gap between budgeted and actual state capex could add about Rs 5.2 trillion to GDP without additional borrowing.
Key Economic and Capital Market Proposals
The report has also proposed an India sovereign fund, modelled on Singapore's Temasek, by pooling the government's equity holdings in public-sector companies. It estimates potential seed capital of about $249 billion, which could generate recurring proceeds for infrastructure and other priorities.
Deepening capital markets is another major priority. Equirus recommends bond-equity tax parity, gradually shifting some small-savings money towards market-priced bonds, abolishing advance tax and cutting TDS on investment income to a flat 5 per cent. These steps, it said, could release large amounts of working capital and expand the corporate bond market.
Push for Human Capital and Innovation
Human capital and innovation would also need a major push. India's R&D spending is around 0.8 per cent of GDP, while the report highlights a sharp gap with China in patent filings. It calls for restoring R&D incentives, expanding private capacity in education, funding universities based on outcomes and substantially increasing apprenticeships.
Services as the Principal Growth Engine
Services are expected to be the principal growth engine. Currently accounting for about 54 per cent of GDP, the sector would need to rise beyond 65 per cent and expand from roughly $2 trillion to more than $11 trillion, according to the report. A National GCC policy could help scale India's existing base of more than 1,800 global capability centres to 5,000, potentially generating a $470-600 billion economic impact and 20-25 million jobs. Tourism is another opportunity, with Equirus estimating that closing the gap with Turkey could bring an additional $21 billion a year in foreign exchange.
Economic Impact and Fiscal Case
Equirus estimates the reforms could lift underlying rupee growth from around 10.5 per cent to 14.2 per cent. To reach $20 trillion in dollar terms, however, this would need to be accompanied by roughly 3-3.6 per cent annual rupee appreciation. "The way the economy grows matters just as much as how fast," the report said, underscoring its emphasis on structural reforms rather than growth at any cost.
The fiscal case is also significant. Equirus estimates about Rs 3.4 trillion in direct annual costs against roughly Rs 7.9 trillion in direct gains from the reform package, implying a net gain of around Rs 4.5 trillion in the first year.
"The path to a $20trillion economy doesn't rest on any single lever - it rests on twenty of them reinforcing one another," the report said. The report concludes that China's experience demonstrates the scale of growth India can target, but reaching $20 trillion by 2036 would depend on sustained execution across infrastructure, capital formation, education, innovation, services, tourism and governance.
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