The IEA warns of a tighter global LNG market for the 2026-27 winter, as ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz restrict supply from Qatar and the UAE, which cannot be fully offset by new projects.

Global LNG Supply Faces Winter Shortages Due to Hormuz Disruption

Global natural gas supplies could tighten further during the 2026–27 winter heating season, as disruptions to trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz pose an unprecedented supply shock to the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The report noted that LNG loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates declined by 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) year-on-year during March–October 2026, resulting in a 5 per cent, or 20 bcm, decline in global LNG output, as additional supplies from new projects only partially compensated for reduced deliveries from the Persian Gulf.

With transit through the Strait of Hormuz remaining severely restricted in late October, the IEA warned that the disruption could continue to affect global gas supplies during the winter months. "The disruption of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz creates unprecedented uncertainty for the global LNG market ahead of the 2026/27 winter," the report said. It further stated that "the supply shock looks set to keep imposing tighter market conditions during the northern hemisphere winter, even as supply from new liquefaction plants around the globe continues to grow."

Supply Outlook and Regional Impacts

Depending on the pace of recovery in LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, global LNG supply could decline by 10–25 bcm year-on-year during the November–March period, the report noted. Meanwhile, the scope for increasing pipeline gas supplies remains limited, as long-distance pipelines generally operate close to their designed capacity, restricting their ability to offset LNG supply shortages.

Growth From Non-Gulf Producers

Despite these constraints, North American exporters are expected to drive LNG supply growth during the winter season, supported by expanding projects in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Additional supplies are also expected from new facilities in West Africa and Australia. According to the IEA, new LNG projects are projected to add around 18 bcm of supply during the winter, while existing facilities could contribute another 3 bcm, taking total incremental supply from outside the Persian Gulf to over 20 bcm.

However, the additional supply is unlikely to offset disruptions from Qatar and the UAE. "In total, new and legacy projects outside the Persian Gulf could contribute slightly over 20 bcm of incremental supply y-o-y in the winter period. Despite the strong growth, this extra supply would remain insufficient to compensate for the lost volumes from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates," the report said.

Scenarios for Winter Supply

Outlining two possible scenarios, the IEA noted that global LNG supply could decline by around 9 bcm, or 3 per cent, year-on-year if the Strait of Hormuz begins progressively reopening in January 2027. However, if the Strait remains closed until the end of March 2027, global LNG supply could witness a sharper decline of around 20 bcm, or 7 per cent, year-on-year during the winter period. The report further cautioned that unplanned outages and delays in ramping up production at new LNG projects could pose additional downside risks to global supplies, particularly amid the continuing Middle East supply disruption.

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