UP Election 2022: Poll survey predicts Yogi Adityanath returning to power, SP’s vote share declining

By Team Newsable | First Published Feb 8, 2022, 5:10 PM IST

Interestingly, around 70 per cent of women opined that Yogi Adityanath should return as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh.

New Delhi: Ahead of the upcoming Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, polling agency ‘Jan Ki Baat’ has published an Opinion poll for the political hotbed. According to the poll, despite the extreme polarization, the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government will return to power. The saffron party is set to emerge victorious with about 228-254 seats to comfortably form the government while the Samajwadi Party-led alliance is trailing behind the BJP with an expectation of 138-163 seats.

The Congress is expected to get a maximum of 2 seats and others maximum of 4 seats. According to the survey, the saffron party led by Yogi Adityanath is likely to get a vote share of 41.3 per cent to 43.5 per cent. Samajwadi Party alliance is expected to get a maximum vote share of 35.5 per cent to 38 per cent in Uttar Pradesh. The Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll has predicted single digit vote share for both the Congress and the BSP.

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However, the Opinion poll states that BJP is expected to get fewer seats in western Uttar Pradesh as compared to 2017 but it won’t dent the party’s chances as it is expected to get more seats than the Samajwadi Party. The survey has revealed that 70 per cent of women want the saffron party to form the government again. This could be the biggest victory factor for the BJP.

The Jan Ki Baat Opinion poll survey for the State of Uttar Pradesh was conducted between January 31 to February 5, 2022. A total of 18,000 people participated in the survey, between the age groups of 18-35 years (30 per cent), 35-45 years (45 per cent) and 45 years+ (25 per cent). As per the findings, the BJP is set to retain power.

According to Opinion Poll, out of the total 403 seats in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP-led alliance is likely to get 228-254 seats. At the same time, the Samajwadi Party-led alliance may have to be content with 138-163 seats. Congress has been predicted to get 2 seats and others 4 seats. In the 2017 elections, the SP got 47 seats.

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Opinion poll survey - Predicted seats won in all 7 phases:

Phase 1: BJP-40, SP-18, BSP-0, Congress-0, Other-0

Phase 2: BJP-23, SP-32, BSP-0, Congress-0, Others-0

Phase 3: BJP-40, SP-18, BSP-0, Congress-1, Others-0

Phase 4: BJP-40, SP-18, BSP-2, Congress-0, Others-0

Phase 5: BJP-35, SP-21, BSP-2, Congress-1, Others-2

Phase 6: BJP-32, SP-22, BSP-2, Congress-0, Others-1

Phase 7: BJP-23, SP-29, BSP-1, Congress-0, Others-1

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