'Trump can claim Nobel Peace Prize if...': Putin's men hope his presidency will give Russia an edge in Ukraine

First Published Nov 7, 2024, 12:58 PM IST | Last Updated Nov 7, 2024, 12:58 PM IST

Russian officials have cautiously expressed optimism following Donald Trump's election as the 47th President of the United States on Wednesday, anticipating potential benefits for Russia, particularly regarding its ongoing war in Ukraine and its relations with the West. While President Vladimir Putin has yet to formally congratulate Trump, high-ranking Kremlin insiders, diplomats, and Russian business elites reportedly believe his return to the White House could signal a shift in global dynamics, with implications for Moscow's foreign policy goals.

According to a VPost report quoting several sources within the Russian government, Trump's presidency as an opportunity to potentially secure a favourable end to the war in Ukraine, a conflict that has raged for nearly three years.

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These officials reportedly revealed that Russia could continue its military operations in Ukraine with the hope of reaching significant territorial gains, including potentially pushing closer to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by January. They suggested that such advances might position Russia to negotiate a settlement on more favourable terms once Trump takes office.

“Until the inauguration, we will keep advancing [in Ukraine],” a Russian government official was quoted as saying in a VPost report. “It would be good to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by January, and then we will decide what to do with Kherson [the Kyiv-held capital of Ukraine's Kherson region, which Russia partially occupies].”

“As soon as Trump takes office and forms his team, then we can agree to start consultations. It will be convenient for him to negotiate. Right now, there's no one to even come to Moscow for talks, no one to talk to,” added another Russian official told the publication.

Kremlin officials hope for favourable negotiations under Trump

Majority of Russian officials quoted by VPost believe that there is a high chance for the Ukraine war to end in Russia's favour. “Ukraine will have to recognize the realities on the ground and do so with the help of the US," they were quoted as suggesting.

Some Kremlin officials also reportedly believe that the new US president-elect Trump will be eager to broker peace deals in Ukraine and the Middle East, viewing successful negotiations as a means to solidify his legacy.

“Trump will probably want to facilitate this, provided he is at the center of the entire process and can then claim his Nobel Peace Prize or make his mark in some other way,” a source close to the Foreign Ministry was quoted as saying. “His self-interest has always been important, and it always will be.”

Throughout the US Presidential Election 2024 campaign, Putin had repeatedly stated that President Joe Biden would be the most favourable candidate for Russia—until Biden withdrew from the race. However, as a skilled former intelligence officer, Putin was reportedly likely trying to mislead the public and politically damage the Democratic candidate. In truth, the Kremlin is said to have been largely rooting for a Trump victory.

Concerns over Biden administration's actions before Trump's inauguration

The Kremlin is hopeful that Trump's presidency will also lead to a thaw in US-Russia relations. However, there are concerns in Moscow about the interim period between the election and Trump's inauguration. A few Russian official reportedly believe that the outgoing Biden administration may take more aggressive actions toward Russia, with some speculating that the US could authorise strikes deep into Russian territory.

“As the Democrats have nothing to lose, they might make decisions that could complicate dialogue in the future. For example, they could authorize the use of American weapons for strikes deep into Russian territory,” a diplomatic source was quoted as saying in a Moscow Times report.

Despite these concerns, Russian officials are closely monitoring the formation of Trump's new administration, with particular interest in appointments to key positions such as national security advisor, secretary of state, and CIA director.

While there is a sense of cautious optimism among many in Moscow, some are more skeptical about the potential for significant changes. A senior executive at a major state corporation stated, "I don’t believe in major breakthroughs, and there is no great euphoria in my circle of contacts. But something interesting is definitely going to happen in the future."

Another government official was more cautious, acknowledging that while Trump's arrival may not drastically alter Russia-US relations, it could lead to heightened tensions in regions such as the Middle East and the Taiwan Strait.

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Russian officials also expressed their frustration with the US electoral process, echoing conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, which Trump and his supporters have claimed was fraudulent. Despite this, many in the Kremlin are hoping that Trump's victory will lead to a more favourable international climate, one where Russian interests might be more easily pursued.

In the coming months, as Trump prepares to take office, Moscow will be watching closely to see whether its expectations for the future of US-Russia relations are realized.

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