A new index from Columbia Climate School reveals the 10 most climate-vulnerable countries by 2050. Many face rising disaster risks and shrinking access to finance, trapping them in a cycle of crisis and recovery.
A new index called the Climate Finance (CliF) Vulnerability Index has identified the countries most likely to suffer from climate disasters by 2050. This index was created by the Columbia Climate School with help from the Rockefeller Foundation.
A new tool shows which countries face the biggest climate risks
The index measures not just natural risks like floods, droughts, cyclones and earthquakes, but also how well countries can access finance to recover and prepare for future disasters. It covers 188 countries and ranks 65 of them in the most dangerous 'red zone'.
The goal is to help donors, governments and aid agencies better understand which countries need the most urgent help, both in terms of disaster risk and financial support.
Why finance matters in climate resilience
Many countries facing serious climate threats also have high debt and limited access to money. That makes it hard for them to prepare for disasters, or rebuild properly after one.
Jeff Schlegelmilch from the Columbia Climate School said that the index provides a clearer picture of which countries are truly at risk, not just from the weather, but also from being financially unable to act.
He said most traditional aid tools don’t consider this full picture. The index aims to change that by showing where money can have the greatest impact.
The worst affected regions and countries
Top 10 most at-risk countries by 2050 (These countries appear in the bottom 10 across all four future climate scenarios):
- Angola
- Burundi
- The Gambia
- Guinea-Bissau
- Eritrea
- Lesotho
- Malawi
- South Sudan
- Sudan
- Zambia
These countries are located in sub-Saharan Africa, a region where nearly 1.2 billion people live. Many are already in debt distress and have weak access to climate finance. Other red zone countries include:
- Asia-Pacific: Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Kiribati
- Latin America & Caribbean: Haiti, Honduras, Venezuela, El Salvador, Ecuador, Bolivia, Guatemala, Belize
- Europe: Ukraine and Cyprus
More than 2 billion people live in these high-risk areas. Most of these countries are low- or middle-income nations, and their populations are expected to grow rapidly by 2070.
What the future looks like
The index uses four future scenarios for 2050 and 2080. These scenarios consider how things could change based on pollution levels, population growth, and how much the world works together to fight climate change.
Of the 65 red zone nations, 47 remain highly vulnerable in all four scenarios, which means their situation is serious even if some progress is made globally.
Who is better prepared?
The index also lists the top 10 best-prepared countries. Most are rich nations with strong financial systems and low climate risk:
- Denmark
- Estonia
- Japan
- Norway
- South Korea
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- United States
- China
- Thailand / UAE (depending on the scenario)
These countries are expected to be more able to protect their people and economies in the face of growing climate dangers.
Global leaders' FFD4 meeting
World leaders will meet soon at the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4) in Spain's Sevilla. The index hopes to guide their discussions on where aid and climate funding should go.
Eric Pelofsky of the Rockefeller Foundation said, “Many of these red zone countries are just one disaster away from a full-blown crisis. We need to direct help where it’s most needed, based on real data.”
The climate crisis is not just about storms or heatwaves. It’s also about whether countries can afford to prepare and recover. This new index gives the world a better tool to fight back, by helping the most vulnerable first.